BROWN COUNTY SEMI-STATE
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff, 12, Columbus North
2. Abe Eckman, 12, Jasper
3. Spenser Wolf, 12, Forest Park
4. Matt Newell, 12, Columbus North
5. Matt Gambill, 12, Terre Haute South
6. Nolan Bailey, 12, Bloomington North
7. Trevor Monroe, 12, Castle
8. Clayton Guthrie, 11, Columbus North
9. Evan Carr, 12, Columbus North
10. Mateo Mendez, 11, Columbus North
11. Stuart Bennett, 12, Northview
12. Jcim Grant, 10, Northview
13. Alex Hooten, 12, Evansville Central
14. Aaron Lord, 11, New Albany
15. Aidan Lord, 11, New Albany
16. Maddox Baker, 12, South Central
17. Will Russell, 11, Columbus North
18. Chase Austin, 11, Brown County
19. Weston Naville, 12, Floyd Central
20. Dylan Zeck, 11, Terre Haute North
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
* Columbus North senior Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff is the class of the field and has been all year. He’s the top returner from last year after finishing second, and he was fourth at the state finals as a junior. He won’t run unchallenged, however, and his individual victory is not guaranteed. Jasper senior Abe Eckman and Forest Park senior Spenser Wolf have run at a state elite and All-State level all season and should challenge. Columbus North senior Matt Newell has shown an ability to run with his teammate and did beat him on one occasion this fall.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Columbus North
2. Bloomington North
3. Northview
4. Floyd Central
5. Bloomington South
6. Austin
7. Jasper
8. Castle
9. Jennings County
10. Terre Haute South
11. Evansville Reitz
12. Forest Park
13. Evansville Central
14. New Albany
15. South Knox
16. Bloomfield
17. Brown County
18. Evansville Memorial
19. Seymour
20. Tell City
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Columbus North is the heavy favorite here, and the odds-on favorite to repeat as state champions the following week. The Bull Dogs could absolutely put six in the top 20, which we predict will happen. While North has historically run better in the state meet than the semistate, the Dogs have performed well at this stage every year recently.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Bloomington North may be a ways back from their preseason projections of challenging for the podium, but the Cougars are in no real danger of not advancing this week. Senior Nolan Bailey ran his best race of the season last week at the regional. The Cougars do have some availability issues—their number two runner sat both the sectional and regional and two others in the projected top seven haven’t raced in a month—and while that may hurt placing at the state finals, it certainly doesn’t put qualifying in jeopardy.
* Bloomington South has been solid all year and finished in front of its cross town rival in a razor-thin three-way battle last week at the regional. While the Panthers were having better team performances earlier in the season, the sectional and regional races will be enough to advance comfortably given close to a repeat performance this weekend. Sophomore Ryan Rheam has improved in tournament races since missing two weeks in late September.
* Floyd Central projects a lot better than it raced the last two weekends, perhaps due to controlled efforts in races the Highlanders won handily as a team. A full go this weekend should easily get the job done for the ‘Landers, though improved performance from the team’s top two runners capable of finishing in the top 20 would certainly help the margin of error.
* Northview has been on a tear lately, and the Knights could certainly finish second here. Northview actually did have the second best team performance at the regional, per inccstats’ ratings, though Bloomington North raced without its number two runner. The Knights have a strong possibility of putting three in the top 20, and if that happens, the math is just too improbable for them to finish outside the top six as a team.
On the Bubble:
* Austin has made a charge in recent weeks and looks capable of throwing what had been a steady top six semistate teams all season into disarray in the eleventh hour here. The Eagles have no semblance of a frontrunner—the team’s top athlete in the semistate rankings comes in at 47 on inccstats—but an emerging fifth runner and tight pack could give Austin an advantage this weekend that it could ride to Terre Haute.
* Jasper is the opposite of Austin. The Wildcats will essentially score four thanks to the aforementioned Eckman, and the ‘Cats could have half as many points through two runners than Austin gets from just its number one. Jasper may score two pretty far back this weekend, which is often one too many to absorb and still advance in a meet this size.
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Julia Kiesler, 11, Columbus North
2. Lily Baker, 11, Columbus North
3. Lily Myers, 11, Bloomington South
4. Andi VanMeter, 12, Jasper
5. Jaydon Cirincione, 12, Floyd Central
6. Brianna Newell, 11, Columbus North
7. Gnister Grant, 10, Northview
8. Kaitlyn Stewart, 10, Floyd Central
9. Elle Hall, 12, Forest Park
10. Clara Crain, 11, Edgewood
11. Savanna Liddle, 11, Floyd Central
12. Haley Meade, 11, Princeton
13. Heidi Meade, 11, Princeton
14. Xavery Wiseman, 9, Pike Central
15. Hadley Gradolf, 11, Brown County
16. Cordelia Hoover, 10, Evansville Reitz
17. Ellia Hayes, 10, Northview
18. Rachel Allison, 11, Bloomington North
19. Bea Cakmak, 12, Bloomington North
20. Katherine Rumsey, 12, Columbus North
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* Right now, there is no clear-cut individual favorite. Floyd Central senior Jaydon Cirincione has the best rating per inccstats for the season, but she did not race in either the sectional nor the regional. Columbus North junior Julia Kiesler has the best individual performance rating, but it came back in early September. Kiesler’s teammate Lily Baker might be running the best now after winning the LaVern Twilight meet and the Columbus North Regional
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Columbus North
2. Northview
3. Floyd Central
4. Bloomington North
5. Jasper
6. Princeton
7. Bloomington South
8. Seymour
9. South Knox
10. Terre Haute South
11. Corydon Central
12. Forest Park
13. Evansville Reitz
14. Edgewood
15. Pike Central
16. Barr-Reeve
17. Columbus East
18. Austin
19. Jennings County
20. Heritage Hills
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Columbus North is the clear favorite here and certainly a contender, if not the favorite, for the state finals next week. The Bull Dogs have two individuals that could win this race outright and will certainly put four in the top 20 (and could put four in the top 25 next week).
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Bloomington North has enough frontrunning and depth not to sweat it out this week in the gloriously cooler temperatures that have finally arrived. The Cougars could have two in the top 20 and have been healthy enough with their typical scorers as not to merit any concern this week.
* Floyd Central has looked like a potential podium team all year, though the Highlanders have had some availability issues down the stretch here. Floyd’s frontrunner ran about a minute slower than her typical elite performance in the conference meet in early October then missed the sectional and regional. Without her, the ‘Landers still advance but with her at her typical performance Floyd is a clear number two team in this semi-state. A predicted third place finish reflects that uncertainty.
* Northview is a lock here and a longshot podium team in Terre Haute next week. The Knights have looked better throughout the season and benefited greatly from the return of frontrunner Gnister Grant after a two-week racing hiatus in early September. Northview has potentially three in the top 20 this week and enough depth that advancement is not a concern.
On the Bubble:
* Bloomington South has a good but not great chance to get out this week. Lily Myers—the sectional and regional champion—gives the Panthers a great frontrunner, and she’s running well at just the right time. Beyond her, though, South has some availability issues which may ultimately be the team’s demise.
* Jasper is really solid. The Wildcats had the fifth best regional rating of all the teams in this semiestate, just a few ticks behind Bloomington North, but the Wildcats were running better several weeks ago than they have in October. Senior Andi Van Meters’s frontrunning means the ‘Cats will essentially score just four runners. It’s not inconceivable that Jasper puts three in the top 20, and if we see a trio of ‘Cats that far up then the team will easily advance.
* Princeton’s late season charge could net the Tigers a trip to Terre Haute as a team. The Meade Sisters—both likely top 20 finishers this week—give Princeton a great start. The Tigers have exactly five runners that they can score and hold any hope of advancing to the state finals. A good race from all five (with some margin of error for the Meades) probably earns the school’s first state finals trip. Anything less ends a good season this week with excitement toward 2022.
SHELBYVILLE SEMI-STATE
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Kole Mathison, 11, Carmel
2. Krishna Thirunavukkarasu, 12, Brebeuf
3. Charlie Schuman, 12, Carmel
4. Kai Conner, 12, Westfield
5. Parker Mimbella, 11, Center Grove
6. Nate Killeen, 11, North Central
7. Joel Mumaw, 12, Noblesville
8. Griffin Hennessey, 12, Center Grove
9. Asher Propst, 11, Noblesville
10. Matteo Rosio, 12, Brebeuf
11. Charlie Leedke, 11, Carmel
12. Kyle Montgomery, 10, Center Grove
13. Will Nobbe, 11, Zionsville
14. Brayden Henkle, 11, Franklin Central
15. Ezra Burrell, 11, Brebeuf
15. Sam Clore, 10, Avon
16. Liam Eifert, 11, Cathedral
17. Ethan Hines, 11, Guerin Catholic
18. Caden Click, 12, Noblesville
19. Jarrett Rockwell, 12, Center Grove
20. Cameron Todd, 10, Brebeuf
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
The class of the field, Kole Mathison and Krishna Thirunavukkarasu should separate and make it a two man race up front. This will be a treat to watch. These two went 14:52 and 14:58 on this course last time they raced. Following them is an extremely consistent group of runners in the 3-15 range. Most, if not all, of these positions are interchangeable. Most of these runners will be competing for valuable team points as well.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Brebeuf
2. Center Grove
3. Carmel
4. Noblesville
5. Zionsville
6. Mt. Vernon
7. Westfield
8. North Central
9. Franklin Central
10. Brownsburg
11. Perry Meridian
12. Avon
13. Greenfield Central
14. Whiteland
15. Batesville
16. Mooresville
17. Plainfield
18. Indian Creek
19. Northeastern
20. Rushville
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Brebeuf, Carmel, and Center Grove all hold great chances at winning this race. Brebeuf finally got all the right pieces back when it mattered most. It’s likely to assume that they will improve moving forward as well. This could be a dangerous team. Center Grove has shown it also has the firepower to take out anyone and Carmel has been consistent as well. This race will be very close through all five runners, and the scores have been so close so often this year, don’t be surprised to see a 6th man tiebreaker.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Noblesville should also be confident in the pieces they have on their team. With two good front runners and a strong three, they should be able to lock in a chance to race again next week.
* Zionsville has been extremely consistent this year with Will Nobbe and Matthew Helton leading their team. Ryan Handy, however, has come on really strong the past few weeks. This team should feel great about it’s chances.
On the Bubble:
* Westfield has a great number one and typically a very good number two as well. They will need to fire on all cylinders (which we have seen them do) in order to lock in their qualifying spot.
* Mt. Vernon was a surprise to upset Franklin Central last week in the Regional. Could the Marauders spoil the show?
*Franklin Central has been running really well all season long. They have good pieces, including a good number 1 runner. * North Central might need a big race in order to best the three teams above, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. They have had strong performances this season and the others are vulnerable.
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Lily Cridge, 11, Chatard
2. Gretchen Farley, 11, Park Tudor
3. Sophia Kennedy, 11, Park Tudor
4. Kendall Martin, 12, Brebeuf
5. Alivia Romaniuk, 12, Carmel
6. Jasmine Klopstad, 11, Carmel
7. Jamie Klavon, 12, Carmel
8. Jessica Hegedus, 10, Avon
9. Audrey Knoper, 12, Western Boone
10. Brinkely Cooper, 9, Noblesville
11. Maddie Rocchio, 10, North Central
12. Hanna Pensyl, 12, Westfield
13. Liz Smith, 10, Westfield
14. Abby Fleetwood, 11, Indian Creek
15. Lauren Klem, 10, Franklin
16. Olivia Mundt, 10, Carmel
17. Sophia Tipmore, 11, North Central
18. Nadia Perez, 10, Noblesville
19. Summer Rempe, 10, Noblesville
20. Mary Edwards, 11, North Central
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* This will be swift and decisive. Though the field is littered with likely All-State talent, Chatard junior Lily Cridge should win by around a minute. The top six from last week’s Noblesville Regional could be the top six here. The front of the race should have teammates with the Park Tudor duo and the Carmel trio.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Carmel
2. Noblesville
3. North Central
4. Westfield
5. Zionsville
6. Avon
7. Franklin Central
8. Brebeuf
9. Franklin
10. Batesville
11. Brownsburg
12. Plainfield
13. East Central
14. Center Grove
15. Whiteland
16. Mt. Vernon
17. Southport
18. Roncalli
19. New Palestine
20. Warren Central
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Carmel was third in the regional in a relatively close race between the top four teams, but that was without the team’s usual third and fourth runners. They competed well in the sectional, and their insertion back into the line-up should help the Greyhounds run away with the team title in preparation to compete for the state championship next week.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Noblesville has been the third best team, on average, in the state this season per inccstats, but the Millers have raced a little sub-par in the first two rounds of the tournament. We would expect a little bounce back this week, but even a performance at the same level as the previous two weekends easily gets Noblesville through to compete for a podium finish next week.
* North Central won its first regional title this century last weekend. The Panthers are in an excellent position to ascend the podium for a second consecutive season, and a strong performance here would only build confidence going into the all-important state meet.
* Westfield has been the surprise team of the season. The Shamrocks will certainly qualify for the state meet and could contend for a second place finish here. Westfield is a very similar team to Noblesville and NC: no true frontrunner but good team racing tactics and depth.
* Zionsville has not had the season the Eagles may have envisioned in the preseason, but this is one of Indiana’s deepest programs and should easily qualify for the state meet. The Eagles brought back one of their missing top three runners in the tournament at pretty close to her usual performance level. If they were to bring back the other two, this is a team capable of another podium run.
On the Bubble:
* Avon has been the sixth-best team all season in the semistate but seems to have been faltering lately, potentially opening the door for some of the teams to sneak by the Orioles and continue to Terre Haute. Avon’s frontrunning is a huge advantage and helps to offset potential issues at the back end of the scoring. If the O’s run the way they did in the regional, there is a good chance they won’t make it out; if they run the way they did at virtually all the other meets this season, then they’re probably advancing.
* Brebeuf has a dependable frontrunner but not the depth of some of the other teams vying for the last qualifying spot. The Braves have been missing a scorer for the last month. If she is able to run here at her typical level, then Brebeuf has a real shot. Without her, Brebeuf could still get in but is more of a longshot.
* Franklin Central has no frontrunner (this year) but the best depth of these three teams. The Flashes’ pack running potential give FC its best chance in a large field. The Flashes will need to bury the fourth and fifth runners from Avon and Brebeuf to have a shot.