INDIANA RUNNER REGIONAL PREVIEWS!
- lidskins
- Oct 20
- 28 min read
Updated: Oct 24
Check back each day this week for a new regional preview. Today we finish with the Evansville Regional!
2025 Mater Dei Regional Preview
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Jacob Mitchell, 12, Bloomington North
2. Jace Works, 12, Columbus North
3. Carter Zieren, 11, Evansville Reitz
4. Calvin Seitz, 11, Springs Valley
5. Caelan D’Onofrio, 12, Bloomington North
6. Denton Sluder, 12, Columbus North
7. Caleb Winders, 12, Bloomington North
8. Joseph Day, 10, Columbus North
9. Graham Pumphrey, 11, Columbus North
10. Joseph Hawkins, 12, Greensburg
11. Justin Reckers, 11, Columbus North
12. Trey Smith, 11, Silver Creek
13. Logan Vanzant, 12, Columbus North
14. Sam Steinmetz, 12, Columbus North
15. Jack Wilbourne, 10, Signature
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
* This should be the most competitive individual race of all five regionals as this field leads the state with five in the top ten of the state prior to the tournament, per inccstats’ ratings. A big topic of conversation all regular season has been who will finish second overall at the state meet to presumptive favorite Noah Bontrager of Westview (competing in the New Prairie Regional). This southern regional boasts at least five, if not more, candidates for that spot.
Evansville Reitz junior Carter Zieren holds the best ranking from the season in the regional. Bloomington North senior Jacob Mitchell is the number one returner in this field from last year’s regional and state meets and is never trailed too far behind by teammate Caelan D’Onofrio. Columbus North senior Jace Works, an All-Stater in cross country, has backed up a breakthrough track season this fall; he finished second at the Nike Twilight meet a few weeks ago, first among Indiana competitors. Springs Valley junior Calvin Seitz has twice been All-State in high school and could be lurking among the contenders after a very quiet regular season, though he did run 15:11 at the Nike Twilight meet, seventh among Indiana finishers. Works’ Columbus North teammate Denton Sluder has run under 15:00 this season and should factor into the individual race as well. This field could produce the most top 25 finishers next week in Terre Haute.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Columbus North
2. Bloomington North
3. Floyd Central
4. Barr-Reeve
5. Silver Creek
6. Bloomington South
7. Princeton
8. Castle
9. Jasper
10. Evansville Memorial
11. South Knox
12. Greensburg
13. Corydon Central
14. Seymour
15. Evansville Reitz
16. Hauser
17. Jennings County
18. Providence
19. Evansville Mater Dei
20. New Albany
21. Eastern Greene
22. Salem
23. Northeast Dubois
24. Tell City
25. Orleans
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Columbus North has potentially an all-time great team—currently third ever on inccstats.com’s rankings—and should cruise to the win here, very likely with seven runners in the top 20. The Bull Dogs are the prohibitive favorite next week for the state title on LaVern Gibson, which would be the program’s sixth since 2002.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Barr-Reeve finished just 13 points behind Floyd Central in the mock regional and more than fifty ahead of fifth place. The Vikings are one of the deeper teams in the regional, which helps offset the lack of a true frontrunner at this level. Barr-Reeve is looking for its second state finals appearance in school history and would be the smallest school in the field next week if they were to qualify.
* Bloomington North won this regional last year en route to the state championship. The Cougars have finished behind Columbus North several times in meets this year, just a little out of striking distance of conceivably pulling an upset. The top trio of Mitchell, D’Onofrio and track star Caleb Winders give the Cougars perhaps the top trio in the state; the rest of the depth is more than good enough to qualify comfortably for Terre Haute again.
* Floyd Central has been solid all season in pursuit of an eighth consecutive state meet appearance. Though the Highlanders may not put anyone in the top 20 individuals, they are substantially deeper than any of the teams outside of the top two in this regional. In the mock regional meet based on sectional performances, Floyd is nearly eighty points ahead of sixth place.
On the Bubble:
* Bloomington South has seen a lot of improvement among its young roster and enters this weekend with a legitimate opportunity to advance to Terre Haute after missing the state meet last fall. A top-twenty finish from sophomore Chase Norris would be a great start to the scoring for the Panthers, who finished fifth in the mock regional, just ten points ahead of sixth place. Junior Luke Reinhart, typically the team’s number three runner, missed the last two races for South; if he returns at close to his normal performance level, that could go a long way to getting the Panthers to the state meet.
* Castle has the ability to finish in the top five, but availability has plagued the Knights for much of this season. Still, Castle is in the mix for just a second ever state meet and first since the meet moved to Terre Haute more than two decades ago. Junior Austin Carlie should finish in the top 20 in what is likely the deepest individual field of all five regionals. The Knights tied for seventh in the mock meet, thirty points back from fifth.
* Jasper has only appeared to be in the mix in the past week, but after a tremendous sectional meet, the Wildcats might find vindication at the end of the season. In the mock regional, the ‘Cats finished just ten points behind fifth. Jasper has nowhere near the ceiling of some of the other bubble teams, but if some of those squads fall apart, then the ‘Cats could hang around to pick up the pieces.
* Princeton seemed like more of a longshot for much of the season but after the sectional looks firmly in the mix to advance. The Tigers were seventh in the mock meet, tied with Castle at thirty back from fifth. Princeton does not have a frontrunner, but the depth could be good enough; in a chaotic season, the Tigers may have just enough to advance out of this regional.
* Silver Creek finished ninth, last among all of the team featured in this preview, but the Dragons have the most upside of any of the teams vying for that fifth spot. Junior Trey Smith and senior Ryan Graham could each finish in the top 20 at the regional, and will probably need to if the Dragons stand a chance of qualifying for the state meet and ending their nine-season drought. This will be a very competitive field Saturday; Smith and Graham performed very well in deep fields at Columbus North and Brown County in September. Those two will need repeats of those races to carry the Dragons to Terre Haute.
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Lexi Kollbaum, 11, Bloomington South
2. Jasmine Martoglio, 12, Bloomington South
3. Aurelia Martoglio, 12, Bloomington South
4. Hannah Crain, 12, Edgewood
5. Laura Barco, 12, Martinsville
6. Mallory Watt, 11, Princeton
7. Noel Nifong, 10, Floyd Central
8. Maddie Graber, 12, Southridge
9. Adeline Schultz, 11, Floyd Central
10. Tristan Works, 11, Columbus North
11. Hayden McGuire, 12, Bloomington North
12. Mary Asplund, 11, Bloomington South
13. Eleanor Davis, 9, Greensburg
14. Paige Voightschild, 11, Bedford North Lawrence
15. Lila Childers, 11, Bloomington North
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* This regional doesn’t have any of the state’s very top individuals, but there are five potential All-State finishers next week. The Bloomington South trio of Lexi Kollbaum with sisters Aurelia and Jasmine Martoglio gives the Panthers three chances at the individual title. Jasmine Martoglio was the first finisher among those three at the Nike Twilight. Kollbaum was third in this race last year. Edgewood senior Hannah Crain was fourth a year ago and is the number one returner from the state meet among competitors here, albeit finishing just a second in front of Aurelia Martoglio in that race. Martinsville senior Laura Barco (sometimes listed as Eleanor Barco) should be in the mix here as well. Princeton senior Mallory Watt is the top returner from the regional, having finished second last season.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Bloomington South
2. Columbus North
3. Floyd Central
4. Bloomington North
5. Jasper
6. Edgewood
7. Corydon Central
8. Seymour
9. Eastern Greene
10. Jennings County
11. Bedford North Lawrence
12. Greensburg
13. Evansville Mater Dei
14. Princeton
15. Evansville Memorial
16. Tell City
17. Castle
18. Gibson Southern
19. Silver Creek
20. North Knox
21. Pike Central
22. Barr-Reeve
23. New Albany
24. Linton-Stockton
25. Borden
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Bloomington South has maintained a comfortable gap on the field all season and should dominate, potentially with five in the top 20. The Panthers have their best team ever and are looking to ascend the podium for the first time in program history. The aforementioned trio of Kollbaum and the Martoglios creates an insurmountable gap at the regional level for any other team to overcome.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Columbus North doesn’t have the frontrunning of some of the other state meet teams out of this regional, but the Bull Dogs depth will easily push them into Terre Haute for the 19th straight season. While North doesn’t have any frontrunners on the state level, the Dogs have several candidates to finish in the top 20 and should field representation on the all-regional team.
* Floyd Central has a formidable frontrunner in sophomore Noel Nifong and enough depth to get back to Terre Haute. The Highlanders should battle with Columbus North for second with Floyd 22 points ahead in the mock meet based on sectional adjusted ratings; neither team appears in any danger of being eliminated this weekend. Floyd is looking for a 12th state meet qualification in 13 years after unexpectedly missing in 2023.
On the Bubble:
* Bloomington North is squarely in the middle of the bubble with three teams vying for two spots that could be within ten points of each other at the regional. The Cougars have been a little ahead of the other teams, on average, this season. Senior Hayden McGuire is likely to finish in the top 20, and junior Lila Childers back at her usual performance level after a sub-par race at the sectional should be enough to usher North back to Terre Haute for the second straight year.
* Edgewood enjoys a head advantage with Crain who could win the individual race and get the Mustangs off to a great start in the team score. Behind her, Edgewood has a sizable gap, but the rest of the team had a very respectable pack at the sectional. The Mustangs were fourth in the mock meet based on sectional performances, though the three bubble teams were separated by just 12 points.
* Jasper does not appear to have any athlete looking to finish in the top 20, but the Wildcats’ first four runners ability to finish closely puts them in the mix to advance. After graduating five competitors from last year’s state meet team, the ‘Cats are looking for a fifth qualification in six seasons. Jasper has shown a knack for competing well in large, competitive fields like the Eagle Classic and even the Nike Twilight, two meets where the ‘Cats beat Edgewood. They will need similar performances, but this is a program that has repeatedly displayed an ability to perform well at the most important times.
2025 New Prairie Regional Preview
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Noah Bontrager, 12, Westview
2. Baylor Miller, 12, Northridge
3. Ben Perschon, 12, Lake Central
4. Brody Lederer, 11, Penn
5. Brady Hicks, 12, Northridge
6. Milo Bullaro, 11, Northridge
7. Jake Metzger, 12, Crown Point
8. Ryan Nix, 11, Chesterton
9. Lucca Neves, 12, Lake Central
10. Matthew Hoffman, 12, Kankakee Valley
11. Levi Schlegel, 11, Goshen
12. Evan Correll, 11, Fairfield
13. Aiden Rogers, 11, Mishawaka
14. Xavier Miller, 12, Northridge
15. Brayden Mainwaring, 12, Penn
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
* Westview senior Noah Bontrager is widely considered the heavy favorite to win the individual state championship next week after finishing second the season prior. Bontrager won this race last year by 17 seconds and should have an even wider margin this season. Northridge senior Baylor Miller should finish second here and very well could do so next week also. Miller finished 29 seconds back from Bontrager at the sectional round with two of his Raider teammates not far behind that. He has historically run his best in the state tournaments. Lake Central duo of Ben Perschon and Lucca Neves might lead the chase pack along with a few from Northridge.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Northridge
2. Penn
3. Chesterton
4. Crown Point
5. Lowell
6. Concord
7. Goshen
8. Lake Central
9. Valparaiso
10. SB St. Joe’s
11. LaPorte
12. Fairfield
13. DeMotte Christian
14. Mishawaka
15. NorthWood
16. Illiana Christian
17. Kankakee Valley
18. SB Adams
19. Hanover Central
20. Portage
21. Benton Central
22. Twin Lakes
23. Morgan Township
24. Renssalaer Central
25. Washington Township
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Northridge performed way better in October than September last year and appears to be on a similar trajectory now. In a mock meet based on sectional adjusted performances (courtesy of inccstats.com), the Raiders scored 55 points, nearly forty ahead of second place. Baylor Miller should give Northridge just one point, and the Raiders could put four in the top ten individually.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Penn has consistently been the second best team in this regional and should easily advance to the state meet. The Kingsmen scored under a hundred points in the mock meet, even without a key runner who should return this week. Junior Brody Lederer and senior Brayden Mainwaring could both finish in the top 20 individually.
On the Bubble:
* Chesterton is one of the better bets in this group to emerge out of the chaos and advance to the state meet, which would snap a two-year hiatus for the Trojans. In the mock meet, Chesterton was nearly forty points ahead of sixth place. The return of junior Spencer Martin, whose availability has been sporadic this fall, would fortify Chesterton’s odds.
* Concord is on the outside looking in, but the Minutemen certainly could advance. Concord was just three points back from fifth in the mock meet, though some of the other bubble teams have athletes to insert that did not race the sectional. Concord doesn’t have a true frontrunner at the regional level, but the depth is better than most of these other squads which could lead the Minutemen to their first appearance since 2009.
* Crown Point is the surest of this group to advance with a 63-point gap to sixth in the mock meet even despite availability issues this season. The Bulldogs will get single digit points from senior Jake Metzger to start scoring. Sophomore Kuba Nurek has returned to run the last two meets, which helps offset the loss of a couple other key runners. This would end a three-year drought for the ‘Dogs.
* Goshen is in a very similar position to rival Concord but with superior frontrunning and inferior depth. The RedHawks can rely on junior Levi Schlegel to finish in the top ten individually and senior Dorian Diaz is a frontrunner at this level as well. The ‘Hawks were fifth in the mock meet but will need to hold off Goshen as well as other groups who may be making additions this weekend to their lineups.
* Lake Central…so you’re telling me there’s a chance!? LC hasn’t looked the part of a state finalist all season but the mock meet of the regional based on sectional adjusted ratings has this team within thirty points of advancing. If Perschon and Neves can each get into the top five in team scoring, that could be a small enough number to give LC an outside chance. Scoring three would be a massive advantage over every squad in the meet outside of Northridge and Penn, which would help to offset the challenges this team faces with its depth.
* Lowell is the most likely team in the field to finish fifth, and the Red Devils have been in range all season for finishing in the top five here. In the mock meet, the Devils are fifty points from qualifying, but they sat the typical fifth runner (as well as sixth and seventh). With junior Carter Wulitch inserted back onto the roster for this weekend, Lowell will be a difficult contestant. The Red Devils are looking to snap a six-year drought.
* Valparaiso is like Lake Central in the longshot category. The Vikings haven’t appeared to be in contention all fall, but the mock meet has them just 13 points back from qualifying. Senior Owen Thomas has shown marked improvement in his last two races and another spectacular meet could help Valpo pull off a miracle and earn a 51st state meet appearance.
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Jenna Walker, 10, Kankakee Valley
2. Macey Thompson, 11, Lake Central
3. Dakotah Moore, 12, Northridge
4. Shreya Nayee, 10, Penn
5. Lila Van Hoveln, 11, Penn
6. Chloe Neal, 11, Lake Central
7. Krista Sytsma, 11, Kankakee Valley
8. Lana Bruggeman, 10, Lake Central
9. Whitney Anderson, 11, Valparaiso
10. Amity Lauzon, 11, Merrillville
11. Elora Bliss, 12, Munster
12. Jody Stump, 9, Washington Township
13. Cassandra Cohen, 12, Hobart
14. Izzy Frabutt, 12, SB St. Joe’s
15. Aubrey Neal, 10, Lake Central
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* This race figures to come down to Kankakee Valley sophomore Jenna Walker and Lake Central junior Macey Thompson. In last year’s race, Thompson got the better of Walker by 11 seconds, though Walker ran faster at the New Prairie Invite a little over a month ago. Each won her sectional race in a more-than-comfortable margin over teammates. A host of potential All-Staters should form a chase pack, including Penn teammates Shreya Nayee and Lila Van Hoveln.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Penn
2. Lake Central
3. Valparaiso
4. Morgan Township
5. Munster
6. Chesterton
7. Goshen
8. Crown Point
9. Kankakee Valley
10. Fairfield
11. Portage
12. SB St. Joe’s
13. Northridge
14. Illiana Christian
15. Wawasee
16. Hanover Central
17. Hobart
18. NorthWood
19. New Prairie
20. SB Adams
21. SB Riley
22. Tri-County
23. West Central
24. Rensselaer Central
25. South Newton
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Lake Central has looked like a borderline podium team this fall after finishing third in Terre Haute last year. LC was tied for the second best team rating in the state from the sectional round, though, so perhaps this group is rounding into form at just the right time. Thompson, ranked fourth in the state, helps her team to score four. Junior Chloe Neal and sophomore Lana Bruggeman give this group likely three in the top ten overall. LC has an incredibly rare mix of experience and accolades on a team with no seniors.
* Penn has the best 1-2 punch in the regional with Nayee and Van Hoveln plus superior depth. That should make for a very close race upfront between these two aspiring podium teams. The Kingsmen just missed the top five last year in sixth at the state meet. With six of those seven back, plus two freshmen in this year’s varsity lineup, Penn is better this season. A big race from one of its trio of underclassmen to round out scoring at number five would be huge for the Kingsmen to close the season.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Morgan Township has been fairly consistent all year, but the Cherokees’ ranking during the season has ebbed and flowed based on the performances of other teams. Regardless, Morgan looks to be in an enviable position heading into this all-important race. Junior Shae Bucher should give the Cherokees at least one in the top 20 overall, and senior Isabella Bryan could join her on the all-regional team. Most impressively for a school of just 256 students, the Cherokees are gunning for a fourth consecutive state finals appearance.
* Valparaiso is a constant on the state scene with 37 total appearances, looking for a 12th consecutive qualification to Terre Haute as a team. Junior Whitney Anderson gives the Vikings the needed frontrunning, and the rest of the roster has more than enough depth for a top-five finish. Anderson and senior Ena Gilliana, the team’s top two runners, are the remaining holdovers from the group that finished third at the state meet in 2023.
On the Bubble:
* Crown Point is on the outside of this trio and didn’t even register a score in our mock meet after fielding a shorthanded lineup in the sectional. Inserting top runner Mia Sargent, a junior with ability to finish in the top 20 individually, will certainly help the Bulldogs’ team score. Senior Avery Moore, also absent in sectional results, should help as well.
* Chesterton finished fifth, 41 points clear of elimination, in the mock meet based on adjusted ratings from the sectionals from inccstats.com. The Trojans will likely need some help to advance, but this is a team with an interesting roster composition. Chesterton is very unlikely to have an individual finish in the top 20 overall; the Trojans’ top runner ranks 39th in the regional in inccstats’ season-long ratings. This will likely be the team with the tightest 1-5 gap of any contenders to advance, and that sort of pack running could help mitigate any pitfalls in a large field.
* Munster was sixth in the mock meet on sectional performances, a wide margin back from advancing. The reinsertion of senior Elora Bliss should help the Mustangs by at least fifty points as she’s very likely to finish in the top 20 individuals. Bliss combined with freshman Lekha Patel have the frontrunning, on a regional level, that could get Munster back in the state meet for just the second time in school history and first since 2007.
2025 Brownsburg Regional Preview
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Aboubakar Ibrahim, 12, Ben Davis
2. Brandon Haas, 12, Brownsburg
3. Camden Raab, 12, Western
4. Jonah Kaul, 11, Carmel
5. Elroe Tafese, 12, Avon
6. Eli Balbach, 12, Brownsburg
7. Tesfaldet Hailu, 12, Ben Davis
8. Quinn Murray, 11, Avon
9. Zach Flint, 12, Carmel
10. Miles Rudy, 12, Western
11. Keegan Terry, 11, North Central
12. Gus Phillips, 12, North Central
13. Mitchell Ford, 12, Avon
14. Cooper Cage, 12, Kokomo
15. Aiden Miller, 11, Terre Haute South
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
* Ben Davis senior Aboubakar Ibrahim is the highest rated runner this season, and he won this race last year. He’s also the highest returner in this regional from state meet results, by virtue of his 16th-place finish, and won the Brownsburg Invitational in early September in 15:16. Ibrahim won the Ben Davis Sectional, six seconds ahead of surprise runner-up (and former teammate) Avon senior Elroe Tafese. Brownsburg seniors Brandon Haas and Eli Balbach could push Ibrahim for the title on their home course after finishing fourth and third, respectively, in the most competitive sectional. Western senior Camden Raab is the number two returner from this regional last year and could finish All-State next week. Carmel junior Jonah Kaul is the number two returner at this regional from state meet results and has historically run much better in the tournament than early in the regular season. Raab and Kaul both won their sectional races in comfortable margins with teammates finishing second.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Avon
2. Carmel
3. Brownsburg
4. North Central
5. Ben Davis
6. Zionsville
7. Western
8. Harrison
9. Pike
10. Northview
11. Terre Haute South
12. West Lafayette
13. Herron
14. Plainfield
15. Northwestern
16. Chatard
17. Kokomo
18. McCutcheon
19. Clinton Central
20. Southmont
21. Faith Christian
22. Rossville
23. Clay City
24. Terre Haute North
25. South Putman
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Avon looked like a potential podium team at Nike Twilight, finishing as the fifth Indiana team and just a handful of points behind Carmel. The Orioles’ ceiling is very high if they can put it together on the same day. Tafese and junior Quinn Murray give Avon two potential All-Staters in a week. A combination of frontrunning and solid depth puts Avon at the top of the list of contenders for the regional title.
* Brownsburg has the frontrunning in Haas and Balbach. Beyond them, the Bulldogs have the best depth in the regional, but those role players have been up and down so far this fall, though the ‘Dogs did bounce back from a sub-par performance at Nike Twilight to beat Avon at the sectional. Brownsburg may have some additions to the lineup this week as well to help defend their regional title from last season.
* Carmel has potentially two in the top ten with Kaul and senior Zach Flint plus good depth. The Greyhounds very narrowly defeated Brownsburg on this course seven weeks ago at the Brownsburg Invitational and held off Avon by a similarly thin margin at Nike Twilight. In a mock meet of sectional performances, the Greyhounds were about thirty points clear of the field with seven in before Avon and Brownsburg’s four, though the margins are very narrow.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* North Central finishes second in a mock meet based on sectional performances, though the Panthers are behind these top three teams based on season average performances. The re-emergence of senior Grant Hostetler, who finished ninth in his sectional race, puts NC comfortably into the state meet after missing last year.
On the Bubble:
* Ben Davis lost a key athlete to transfer but the massive improvement of senior Tesfaldet Hailu gives the Giants a great second frontrunner to pair with defending regional champion Aboubakar Ibrahim. Those low points through two runners should help negate BD’s disadvantage at five.
* Western is a bit of a surprise contender. Raab and senior Miles Rudy get the Panthers off to a great start; Western’s fifth runner has improved dramatically in the last three weeks and continued performance at that level could put the Panthers in the mix.
* Zionsville is a deep team but may start scoring in a hole compared to our other bubble schools. Senior Elijah Weaver had his best race of the season in the sectional, finishing fifth behind frontrunning duos from Carmel and North Central. Senior Andrew Schonlau did not race in the sectional but was the Eagles’ number one runner at Nike Twilight. To advance, Zionsville will probably need similar races from both those seniors to fend off the other two teams vying for the final spot.
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Annabel Pollert, 11, Carmel
2. Julia Score, 12, Chatard
3. Sadie Foley, 12, Carmel
4. Larkin Taylor, 11, Carmel
5. Kelsey Rehmel, 12, North Central
6. Alena Wigger, 9, Avon
7. Kaitlyn Manfra, 12, Harrison
8. Lucy Wood, 12, Brebeuf
9. Isabel Garcia, 11, Brebeuf
10. Carla Rodriguez, 12, Harrison
11. Kathryn Green, 12, Zionsville
12. Letty Banwart, 10, Zionsville
13. Margo Halle, 10, Carmel
14. Addyson Bautista, 9, Terre Haute North
15. Aftin Griffin, 12, Cass
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* Chatard senior Julia Score is the defending champion; she won this race last year by 33 seconds, though she’s been selective with her racing and effort this fall. The Carmel trio of Annabel Pollert, Sadie Foley and Larkin Taylor have closed the gap on Score and then some in recent weeks. Foley won the sectional in a possible statement race, finishing more than twenty seconds ahead of Taylor and Score with Pollert farther back. There is a gap to the rest of the field, certainly. Avon freshman Elena Wigger won the Ben Davis Sectional over a strong field that included Brebeuf teammates Lucy Wood and Isabel Garcia. Harrison teammates Carla Rodriguez and Kaitlyn Manfra went 1-2 in their own sectional. Our committee (of one) projects a bounce back race from one of the state’s best in Pollert.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Carmel
2. Zionsville
3. North Central
4. Chatard
5. Harrison
6. Avon
7. Brebeuf
8. Brownsburg
9. Heritage Christian
10. West Lafayette
11. Northview
12. Plainfield
13. Terre Haute South
14. Lewis Cass
15. Pike
16. Faith Christian
17. Terre Haute North
18. McCtucheon
19. Lafayette Jeff
20. Logansport
21. Northwestern
22. Maconaquah
23. Western
24. Owen Valley
25. West Vigo
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Carmel certainly appears to be on its way to winning a second straight state championship and could take the top three spots here individually. In a mock meet based on sectional performances, Carmel scored just 37 points, nearly eighty points clear of second. Sophomore Margo Halle’s solid season makes the ‘Hounds clearly the best team in the state with just a couple races to go.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Chatard has a great frontrunner in Score and the return of senior Ceci Jackson in recent weeks should give the Trojans enough to stay ahead of the deepest regional field in the state. In the mock meet, Chatard is thirty points clear of sixth and it seems likely will see improved performance from Jackson this week. Junior Grace Leppert should give Chatard at least two in the top 20 overall.
* Zionsville may have regressed in October from what looked like a potential podium team to start the season. Senior Kathryn Green and sophomore Letty Banwart could give the Eagles two in the top 20, and Zionsville has some subs to make that should ensure a top-two finish at this meet. The Eagles aren’t a lock to advance to Terre Haute, but it would be surprising if they didn’t finish in the top five.
On the Bubble:
* Avon has been rejuvenated by a strong freshman class, including the frontrunner Wigger, and new coach Zach Toothman combining the program with the boys’ team. The Orioles may miss out on Terre Haute this year–they are 12 back from qualifying in our mock meet–but with no seniors in the top seven this is a team to watch for the future.
* Brebeuf enjoys great frontrunning with Wood and Garcia, and the role players have stepped up in recent weeks. The Braves lost to Avon in the sectional, but Brebeuf’s superior depth projects better in a large field like the regional. The Braves were fifth in the mock meet and only 22 points back from second.
* Harrison finished nearly fifty points out of fifth in our mock meet based on sectional performances, but the Raiders had a distinct disadvantage in terms of the level of competition in that first round. Manfra and Rodriguez gives Harrison a great start, perhaps superior to any of the other contenders through two runners. At their best, the Raiders are clearly one of the five best teams in this regional, but they’ll need to return to that form to survive the most treacherous path to Terre Haute.
* North Central has had a solid season with a great opportunity to make a sixth consecutive state meet appearance. Senior Kelsey Rehmel has at times finished very close to Carmel’s top trio. The Panthers also have some runners to insert into the lineup that did not race last weekend. If senior Elizabeth Rocchio races at a similar level as she did in the sectional, NC should comfortably finish in the top five.
2025 New Haven Regional Preview
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Zander Ritenour, 11, Lakewood Park Christian
2. Jace Trevino, 11, Homestead
3. Jackson Gackenheimer, 12, Warsaw
4. Cooper Knoblauch, 12, Homestead
5. Sam Sweet, 10, Carroll (FW)
6. Bryan Garcia, 12, New Haven
7. Andrew Strong, 12, Eastside
8. Wyatt Turner, 11, Yorktown
9. Memphis Martin, 11, Lakeland
10. Riley Lembke, 12, Homestead
11. Branson Birkey, 11, Homestead
12. Jacksan Slater, 12, Snider
13. Thomas Loney, 10, Yorktown
14. Hunter Panning, 12, Concordia Lutheran
15. Graysen Ruch, 10, West Noble
16. Kai Feasel, 9, Carroll (FW)
17. Isaiah Loney, 11, Yorktown
18. Ezra Church, 11, Wabash
19. Connor Creutz, 10, Concordia Lutheran
20. Chase Wilson, 11, Northrop
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
There are a lot of sub-16:00 runners in this field. Ritenour and Gackenheimer both have season best times under 15:00 (Ritenour 14:57 at Nike Twilight and Gackenheimer 14:59 at Marion Invitational). Jace Trevino probably has the best pure leg speed in this field, so if it comes down to the final 400 meters he can certainly win. Knoblauch, Sweet, and Garcia all have season best times in the 15:20s and 15:30s. There are numerous podium-level runners in this field.
This race will likely go through the mile in the 4:40s and through 2 miles around or under 9:40. It will be interesting to see how many runners are still together heading into the final kilometer. We give Ritenour the slight edge to pull away over the final few minutes of the race.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Homestead
2. Yorktown
3. Carroll (FW)
4. Concordia Lutheran
5. Wabash
6. Angola
7. Norwell
8. Northrop
9. Lakewood Park Christian
10. Snider
11. Delta
12. Oak Hill
13. Bishop Dwenger
14. West Noble
15. Warsaw
16. Columbia City
17. South Adams
18. Plymouth
19. Bluffton
20. Wapahani
21. Marion
22. Culver Academies
23. Central Noble
24. Muncie Central
25. Mississinewa
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Homestead- The Spartans are the clear team favorite and a state meet podium contender next week. They have 4 runners ranked in the top 11 individually heading into Saturday’s regional meet. They have elite frontrunners, experienced juniors and seniors, and great depth. This is a really good team.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Yorktown- This is an outstanding Yorktown team, with elite frontrunners and great depth. They could finish as high as 2nd place in this meet. Yorktown has never had a boys cross country team advance to the state finals, just missing one spot a year ago. We believe they are about to make school history! They looked great at sectional.
* Carroll (FW)- The Chargers have been consistently good all fall and Sam Sweet has developed into a legitimate state-level frontrunner. This is a team with experience, having qualified for the past two state meets. We expect them to make it 3 in a row.
* Concordia Lutheran- The Cadets advanced to the state meet last year and after graduating 2 of their top 3 they are right back in the mix again this year. Hunter Panning is having a solid senior campaign. Connor Creutz and Austin Panning are both likely top 25 finishers in this race.
On the Bubble:
* Wabash- If they are at full strength, they are likely top 5 team. However, they have had some injury issues throughout the season and they did not have their full roster at sectional. If Cordes and Unger are both back in at regional, they are in a good spot to advance. There is a big gap from their #5 to #6, so they cannot afford any mishaps.
* Angola- The Hornets have been a top 10 team most of the season, but over the past few weeks they have been pushing up closer to the top 5 bubble. They were a strong 2nd place at West Noble Sectional and are squarely in the mix to go to state. This group of seniors made it to state as sophomores and they would love to punch their ticket again.
* Norwell- The Knights are surging late in the season. Their top 5 runners averaged 17:18 at the NE8 Conference Meet and then put up a 17:12 top 5 average to win the Delta Sectional. It has been 25 years since Norwell has qualified a boys team for the state finals. They lack an elite frontrunner, though, which keeps them on the outside of the bubble. They would need a near-perfect 1-5 team race.
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Mallory Weller, 12, Concordia Lutheran
2. Kenya Leitch, 11, Columbia City
3. Daphne Weller, 10, Concordia Lutheran
4. Caterina Perego, 12, Homestead
5. Clare Lebrija, 10, Homestead
6. Samantha Rastrelli, 12, Warsaw
7. Chloe Gibson, 12, East Noble
8. Leighton Archer, 9, Concordia Lutheran
9. Rowyn Norris, 11, Leo
10. Hannah Suvar, 12, Blackhawk Christian
11. Alice Friesen, 11, Huntington North
12. Lucy Hogue, 9, Concordia Lutheran
13. Daisy Niezer, 12, Homestead
14. Maren Wilson, 12, Northrop
15. Georgia Leininger, 9, Snider
16. Vivy Miller, 11, Plymouth
17. Dani Rastrelli, 9, Warsaw
18. Hannah Clark, 12, Concordia Lutheran
19. Olivia Conlon, 10, Carroll (FW)
20. Lucy Kramer, 11, Homestead
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* Mallory Weller is the defending state champion, but she is clearly dealing with an injury. She did not run at sectional and was in a walking boot. She was observed running before the meet, which leads us to believe she will be racing in the regional. Kenya Leitch and Daphne Weller are both returning podium runners from last fall. Caterina Perego has been running very well in October to give Homestead a great 1-2 punch with Clare Lebrija.
We expect the Wellers and Leitch to break away from the rest of the field midway through the race and finish 1-2-3 just like they did in this race last year.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Concordia Lutheran
2. Homestead
3. Carroll (FW)
4. Columbia City
5. Warsaw
6. Bishop Dwenger
7. East Noble
8. Huntington North
9. Snider
10. Leo
11. Plymouth
12. West Noble
13. Norwell
14. Oak Hill
15. Northrop
16. Bluffton
17. Culver Academies
18. Yorktown
19. Jay County
20. Angola
21. Wapahani
22. Monroe Central
23. Mississinewa
24. Marion
25. Southwood
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Concordia Lutheran- The Weller sisters are arguably the best 1-2 duo in the state (it is either Concordia or Carmel). Freshmen Leighton Archer and Lucy Hogue both ran great at the sectional meet last week. With Mallory Weller back in the lineup, we expect Concordia to win the regional.
* Homestead- The Spartans beat Concordia last week at sectional and they are a legitimate podium-level team that will likely put their entire top 5 in the top 25 at regional. That will be enough to secure a strong top 2 finish.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Carroll (FW)- The Chargers were the 5th and final team to make the state finals a year ago. We expect them to be advance with more room to spare this year. Olivia Conlon is having a great sophomore campaign, freshman Cate Sunderlin is running well, and senior Natalie Blume has had strong races recently.
On the Bubble:
* Columbia City- The Eagles are likely to finish 4th or 5th, but we are putting them on the bubble because top 5 is not a certainty. Leitch is an elite frontrunner, but likely their only top 25 runner on Saturday. They need a solid team race up and down the lineup.
* Warsaw- The Rastrelli sisters give the Tigers a great 1-2 and Eden Metz is running well. Then there is a sizeable gap back to their 4-5 runners. They need great performances from these final scorers if they want to head back to Terre Haute again.
* Bishop Dwenger- This is a true pack running team, putting their 1-5 all within 30 seconds at sectional. For them to crack the top 5, they will need some of those runners to push into the top 30 positions this weekend. If their top 5 are all between 25th and 50th, they can make it to state.
* East Noble- The Knights are squarely on the bubble once again. Chloe Gibson is racing well, and classmate Johanna Carpenter is, too. Macey Colin did not run sectional; she is key for East Noble to push for a top 5 spot. They lack depth, so they need all of their top 5 runners to perform well at regional.
2025 Shelbyville Regional Preview
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Liam Powers Hamilton SE
2. Simon Nickelson Lapel
3. John Libs Noblesville
4. Banner Barnes Noblesville
5. Zach White Pendleton Heights
6. Isaac Smith Hamilton SE
7. Nate Thomas Fishers
8. Conrad Schumacher Lawrence North
9. Liam Fennig Franklin Community
10. Justin Reedus Franklin Central
11. Jack Combs Lapel
12. Isaiah Vos Noblesville
13. Jayden Salo Center Grove
14. Tyler Lenze Lawrence North
15. Tanner Paddock Union County
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
* Liam Powers (HSE) has had a tremendous senior season, winning the HCC and the Noblesville Sectional. Look for him to head a lead pack that could be thick for the first 2K. As it strings out over the middle kilometers it will be interesting to see how many (if any) Noblesville boys are in the hunt for the win.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Noblesville
2. Hamilton Southeastern
3. Fishers
4. Center Grove
5. Lawrence North
6. Franklin Central
7. Westfield
8. Whiteland
9. Franklin Community
10. Greenfield-Central
11. Pendleton Heights
12. Mount Vernon
13. Mooresville
14. New Palestine
15. Indian Creek
16. Madison
17. Richmond
18. Northeastern
19. Hagerstown
20. Union County
21. Batesville
22. Austin
23. Charlestown
24. Crothersville
25. Milan
Boys Team Commentary:
The Noblesville Millers have been the top team in this regional all year and look to be the favorite for Saturday. They handily dispatched a strong Hamilton Southeastern team and have the front running and depth to handle this rugged regional. After HSE it looks to be quite close for the next five spots. Fishers, Center Grove, Lawrence North, Franklin Central, and Westfield are all capable squads and have legitimate chances to advance to the state finals. Lawrence North probably had the best sectional performance from this grouping but the tradition of Fishers and Center Grove can’t be ignored. Franklin Central usually performs well at this regional and Westfield is strong, though might be a year away from advancing.
In the Mix to Win:
* Noblesville
*
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Hamilton Southeastern
* Fishers
* Center Grove
On the Bubble:
* Lawrence North
* Franklin Central
* Westfield
Girls Individual Predictions:
1.Libby Dowty Indian Creek
2.Anya Zoeller Pendleton Heights
3.Alivia Lozier Westfield
4.Caitlin Hawkins Fishers
5.Lilly Rollings Greenwood
6.Allie Bushey Hamilton Heights
7.Jayde Stamm Noblesville
8.Ava Wade Batesville
9.Chloe Tragesser Guerin Catholic
11.Callie Bentley East Central
12.Hailey Pardieck New Palestine
13.Josie Kinnaman Greenfield-Central
14.Natalie Vandesteene Franklin Central
15.Mia Brinkuff Greenfield-Central
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
*What a showdown the spectators at Shelbyville should witness. Two state title contenders should go head-to-head and both could challenge the 17:00 barrier. Indian Creek senior Libby Dowty (2023 IHSAA state cross country champion) and Pendleton Heights sophomore Anya Zoeller (third place at the 2024 IHSAA state finals) should clear the field early and battle for the coveted Blue River blue ribbon. There are some other fantastic runners in this field (including Westfield's Alivia Lozier, Fishers' Caitlin Hawkins, and Lilly Rollings from Greenwood) however, they will be chasing the one point team score.
Girls Teams Predictions:
Westfield
Fishers
Franklin Central
Noblesville
Guerin Catholic
Hamilton Southeastern
Batesville
New Palestine
Greenfield-Central
Whiteland
Cathedral
Center Grove
East Central
Franklin Community
Mount Vernon
Greenwood
Roncalli
Southwestern
Northeastern
Charlestown
Madison
Switzerland County
Hagerstown
Rushville
South Dearborn
Girls Team Commentary
While it appeared that Westfield had a stranglehold on this regional for the last few weeks, they showed some vulnerability at the Noblesville Sectional. Fishers and Noblesville were right on their tails. The Franklin Central Flashes had a strong sectional victory and appear to be in the mix as well. The depth of the Shamrocks coupled with their lead runner gives them the slight edge. The last spot could come down to two evenly matched and well-coached squads from Guerin Catholic and Hamilton Southeastern. The gap to 7th appears to be pretty far back.
In the Mix to Win:
*Westfield
*Fishers
*Noblesville
*Franklin Central
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
*Hamilton Southeastern
*Guerin Catholic
On the Bubble:
*Hamilton Southeastern
*Guerin Catholic
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