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New Haven Semi State Preview

Girls Individual Predictions:

1. Nicki Southerland, 10, Delta

2. Addison Knoblauch, 10, Homestead

3. Addy Wiley, 12, Huntington North

4. Julie Smith, 12, Penn

5. Addison Lindsey, 9, East Noble

6. Maggie Powers, 10, Hamilton Southeastern

7. Lexi Panning, 10, Concordia Lutheran

8. Allie Latta, 12, Hamilton Southeastern

9. Elizabeth Barrett, 12, Fishers

10. Mary Eubank, 10, Penn

11. Victoria Clibon, 11, Northrop

12. Gracynn Hinkley, 11, Angola

13. Taylor Hansen, 10, Carroll (FW)

14. Tame Baylis, 11, Northridge

15. Julie Economou, 11, Penn

16. Dakota Rogers, 10, East Noble

17. Haylee Hile, 11, Northridge

18. Lauren Walda, 12, FW South Side

19. Marybeth Hall, 10, Carroll (FW)

20. Eden Norris, 12, Leo

How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold

Nicki Southerland does not receive the attention she truly deserves, as her team’s schedule rarely places her in competition against other All-State individuals. This weekend she will have plenty of podium-level competition.

Addison Knoblauch has been running very well this season, coming off a big win at the West Noble Regional this past Saturday.

Addy Wiley had a historically great track season this spring and should be primed for big races over the next two weeks.

Julie Smith, Addison Lindsey, and Maggie Powers are all podium-level runners, as well.

We expect there to be a lead pack of several runners through the first mile and then by two miles we expect that pack to break up, with Southerland, Knoblauch, and Wiley emerging as the leading trio. Ultimately, we expect Southerland to open up a gap over the final mile on her way to an impressive semi state victory with Knoblauch and Wiley battling out for 2nd and 3rd place over the final 800 meters.

Girls Teams Predictions:

1. Carroll (FW)

2. Hamilton Southeastern

3. Homestead

4. East Noble

5. Penn

6. Fishers

7. Concordia

8. Northridge

9. Leo

10. Huntington North

11. Pendleton Heights

12. Elkhart

13. SB St. Joseph's

14. South Side (FW)

15. NorthWood

16. Oak Hill

17. Norwell

18. Delta

19. Eastbrook

20. Yorktown

Girls Team Commentary

In the Mix to Win:

* Carroll (FW) – We are picking Carroll to win the semi state title, even though they finished 3rd in the West Noble Regional. Two of their top four runners (Brooke Hansen and Sophia Haslett) did not score for Carroll in that race. On a good day Carroll could have 4 girls finish in the top 20- on Saturday and they are likely the only team in this field who can do that.

* Hamilton Southeastern – HSE sat their top two runners out of regional (Maggie Powers and Allie Latta). Powers and Latta are probably the best 1-2 punch in the semi state and the Royals always have plenty of depth in their top 7. With rested legs this is certainly a team that can win this race.

* Homestead – The Spartans are coming off a big win at the West Noble Regional. Knoblauch is an elite frontrunner and sophomore Lauren Saddington could also be a top 20 finisher this weekend. Freshmen twins Addison and Alexis Goebel help give Homestead depth in their top 5, making them another contender for the team title.

In Good Position to Qualify for State:

* East Noble – The Knights have been very good all season and finished 2nd at West Noble Regional last weekend, tightly scoring between Homestead and Carroll. Addison Lindsey is probably the best freshman girl in Indiana this year and sophomore Dakota Rogers has emerged in the latter part of this season to give them even more strength up front.

* Penn – This team has a tremendous trio in Julie Smith, Mary Eubank, and Julie Economou. On his podcast Colin Altevogt has referred to them as Penn pals. If Penn places 3 runners in the top 20 at semi state, which they very well could, they should secure another trip to Terre Haute.

On the Bubble:

* Fishers – We like the Tigers to make a run at a top 6 finish. Elizabeth Barrett has been a great frontrunner this season and fellow seniors teammates Vera Schafer, Anna Runion, and Megan Mybeck running 2-4. That is a huge advantage having so many experienced seniors up front.

* Concordia – Lexi Panning has been racing very well. Keller Whicker and Madelyn Borchelt are solid 2-3. The Cadets need strong races from their 4-5 runners. Concordia has routinely been running around a 2-minute gap from #1 to #5. They need to narrow that gap this Saturday.

* Northridge – The Raiders have a great duo of frontrunners in Baylis and Hile, but they have struggled to find a reliable #5 runner this season. If their 5th runner is well outside the top 100 on Saturday the math becomes very difficult on qualifying for the state meet.

* Leo – The Lions have great senior and sophomore classes. Eden Norris has emerged in October and Isabelle Shenfeld is back after missing the entire month of September. If Shenfeld can join Norris up front, Leo has an outside shot at qualifying for the state meet.

* Huntington North – Senior Addy Wiley is an elite frontrunner and the Vikings have a crew of sophomores behind her in their top 5. It will require a complete team race for Huntington North to make a run at the top 6.

Boys Individual Predictions:

1. Izaiah Steury, 12, Angola

2. Jack Moore, 12, Northridge

3. Cole Johnston, 12, Goshen

4. Drew Hogan, 12, Goshen

5. Nolan Satterfield, 12, Hamilton Southeastern

6. Austin Hall, 12, Columbia City

7. Jaxon Miller, 11, Northridge

8. Ethan Baitz, 12, Homestead

9. Alec Foster, 12, Fishers

10. Robert Lohman, 12, Carroll (FW)

11. Anthony Roberts, 12, Concord

12. Bennett DuBois, 12, Hamilton Southeastern

13. Colin Simons, 12, Fishers

14. Tommy Claxton, 11, Goshen

15. Ryan Hoopingarner, 12, Mishawaka

16. Karsten Schlegel, 12, Concordia Lutheran

17. Mariano Retzloff, 12, Penn

18. Deion Guise, 12, Bellmont

19. Nick Pulos, 12, Fishers

20. Will Marquardt, 12, Hamilton Southeastern

How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold

This is a deep field of individuals and we expect several of these runners to place very high in Terre Haute next weekend. Having said that, Izaiah Steury is the clear favorite in this race. Steury is the defending state champion and has not lost a race on grass in Indiana in a long time.

The Elkhart Regional trio of Jack Moore (Northridge) and Goshen teammates Cole Johnston and Drew Hogan have battled it out against each other multiple times this season.

HSE senior Nolan Satterfield did not run in the regional meet, so he should be fresh and ready for a high finish this weekend.

There are three other returning podium finishers, as well: Retzolff (Penn), Schlegel (Concordia), and Baitz (Homestead). Look for those guys to step up in these final two races.

We expect this race to go out strong, but not crazy (4:45-4:50 range at the mile), then look for a lead pack of about 5-6 guys to still be intact through 3K. Then we expect Steury to turn up the intensity over the final 5 minutes of this race to win his second straight semi state title. The battle for 2nd will be fun to watch, as there are many elite individuals in this field.

Boys Teams Predictions:

1. Hamilton Southeastern

2. Fishers

3. Goshen

4. Northridge

5. Homestead

6. Concordia

7. Penn

8. Carroll (FW)

9. Columbia City

10. Angola

11. Bellmont

12. NorthWood

13. Oak Hill

14. Mishawaka

15. Huntington North

16. Monroe Central

17. Bluffton

18. Bishop Luers

19. Wapahani

20. Yorktown

Boys Team Commentary

In the Mix to Win:

* Hamilton Southeastern – Satterfield is an elite frontrunner and this is a senior-dominated team. They sat their top guys at regional, so they should be fresh and ready for this race. DuBois, Marquardt, and Hicks could all be top 20 finishers this Saturday, along with Satterfield. If they race well the Royals will likely be the team champions.

* Fishers – The Tigers have some elite seniors, as well, in Alec Foster, Colin Simons, and Nick Pulos as well as a sensational freshman Sam Quagliaroli. Fishers could also place 3 or 4 runners in the top 20. They could win the team title Saturday. At worst, they will probably finish second. There is a sizeable gap after these top two teams.

In Good Position to Qualify for State:

* Goshen – This team features one of the most dynamic trios in the state in Johnston, Hogan, and Claxton. Johnston and Hogan are both All-State level runners and Claxton is right on the fringe. Their 4-5 runners are good enough that they should qualify as a team for Terre Haute.

* Northridge – The Raiders have been very good this year, led by Jack Moore who has had an incredible senior season. Junior Jaxon Miller continues to improve and could join Moore in the top 10 this weekend. Similar to Goshen, their 4-5 runners are strong enough that this should be a state qualifying team.

On the Bubble:

* Homestead – Coming off a big win at the West Noble Regional, this is a team squarely on the bubble this weekend. Ethan Baitz is racing well up front, but he is the only true front running threat that the Spartans have. They will need another solid effort from everyone 2-5 if they are going to earn a trip to the State Finals. If they repeat their regional performance, they will advance.

* Concordia – Senior frontrunners Karsten Schlegel, Gabriel Connelly, and Daniel Adair lead the Cadets, but they need some help from their 4-5 runners in order to secure another appearance in Terre Haute. They have good top 7 depth, so odds are good that their 4-5 will run well this weekend.

* Penn – Retzloff seems to be coming back after a rough patch (for his standards) in late September. Carter Kaser rejoined the team in racing the past two weeks. Like most teams on the bubble, their chances to advance this weekend depend heavily on their 3-5 runners.

* Carroll (FW) – Seniors Robert Lohman and Preston Sloffer are strong up front. Fellow senior Nick Kiplinger is a key runner for the Chargers this weekend. He had a bit of an off race at regional, but if he bounces back it will help Carroll climb the ranks toward the top 6.

* Columbia City – Senior Austin Hall is having arguably the best season in school history. This is a senior-dominated team that has been very successful over their 4 years in the program. Look for these seniors to race well this weekend and make a push toward a qualifying position.

* Angola – This is their first semi state qualifying team in school history, but don’t look for the Hornets to be satisfied with that. They are led by defending state champion Izaiah Steury. Sophomore Sam Yarnell is a legit #2 man. Angola’s team finish will rely mostly on their 3-5 runners. If those guys can push toward 17-flat this weekend, this team has a shot.


Girls Individual Predictions:

1. Karina James Lowell

2. Lillian Zelasko New Prairie

3. Kaylie Politza Valparaiso

4. Bailey Ranta Chesterton

5. Brenna Sobecki LaPorte

6. Hannah Moore Northwestern

7. Catherine White Chesterton

8. Cheyanne Stock Valparaiso

9. Emma Beimfohr Harrison (WL)

10. Jennifer Romero Seeger

11. Lila Gilessa LaPorte

12. Hadessah Austin Seeger

13. Jaylie Rohmeyer Harrison (WL)

14. Josefina Rostrelli Warsaw

15. Carina Alanis Frankfort

16. Ciara Bonner Chesterton

17. Amzie Maienbrook Rensselear Central

18. Annabel Prokopy West Lafayette

19. Abby Jordan Maconaquah

20. Kamilla Gibson Lafayette Jefferson

How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold

* Will Lowell’s Karina James break away from the field early? Will Politza, Zelasko, Ranta, and others try to challenge James from the gun? Expect James to break away at some point and come home with the title. With a dry course, could James break 18 minutes?

Girls Teams Predictions:

1. Chesterton

2. Valparaiso

3. LaPorte

4. Lake Central

5. Warsaw

6. West Lafayette

7. Harrison (WL)

8. Seeger

9. Crown Point

10. Iliana Christian

11. Morgan Township

12. Portage

13. Rochester

14. Culver Academy

15. Highland

16. Maconaquah

17. Hanover Central

18. Faith Christian

19. Benton Central

20. Western

Girls Team Commentary: Chesterton and Valparaiso have one of the better statewide rivalries and this year it has been especially close between these two teams. Expect a very tight battle again for semi-state supremacy. Chesterton appeared to be the team to beat earlier in the season but Valpo continues to creep up on the Trojans. If the Vikings can continue to pressure Chesterton they absolutely could pull out the win. LaPorte has been improving over the last month and would appear to have a great chance to advance. Lake Central is a pack running team that should have their entire scoring group in the top 50. Warsaw has a fairly deep team that has been solid all year. That last qualifying spot should be VERY close. Harrison has held off West Lafayette a number of times this year…can they keep it up? Seeger is a team with two strong front runners and that could be a big difference maker as all of the teams vying for that last qualifying spot will likely have a fifth runner that is fairly far back. The team that gets the best performance from their fifth finisher just might be the team to punch their ticket to the state meet.

In the Mix to Win:

* Chesterton- they've essentially been the top team here all season long...can they hold off their rivals?

* Valparaiso- they seem poised to give Chesterton a great race and they are more than capable of taking the title on Saturday.

In Good Position to Qualify for State:

* LaPorte- this is a very solid team that appears to be at their best right now

* Lake Central- they are a strong pack running team and that can be great in big meets...however, they lack a low scorer and that can hurt at big meets

* Warsaw- they've quietly put together a strong season

On the Bubble:

* West Lafayette- lots of tradition...but does tradition run races?

* Harrison (WL)- they have held off West Lafayette all season long in close races but can they do it again?

* Seeger- they are sort of the opposite of Lake Central...strong front running but a large 1-5 compression

*Crown Point- they've faced strong competition all year long and that could help them land a spot at Terre Haute.

Boys Individual Predictions:

1. Cole Raymond LaPorte

2. Justin Hoffman Kankakee Valley

3. James Dillabough Valparaiso

4. Jay Pillai LaPorte

5. Brayden Sobecki LaPorte

6. Ryan York Hanover Central

7. Preston Padgett Rossville

8. Elijah Stenburg West Lafayette

9. Samuel Tullis Culver Academy

10. Jackson Bakker Lowell

11. Joel Bryant Valparaiso

12. Mason Nobles Valparaiso

13. Tristen Wuethrich Rensselear Central

14. Owen Thomas Morgan Township

15. Cole Dolson Chesterton

16. Jackson Tuck Chesterton

17. Henry Balagtas West Lafayette

18. Zach Dunn Merrillville

19. Weston Hulen Crown Point

20. Garrett Hall Warsaw

How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold

* LaPorte’s Cole Raymond has been the top runner from this semi-state all season long. While there are a number of runners that could challenge him for the victory, expect Raymond to eventually pull away for the title. Will he be able to break 16 minutes? The race for the top 20 spots will be fierce as there are probably 35 guys that could’ve been listed above for those 20 predictions above. There isn’t a huge difference between the 15th place finisher and the 5th place finisher.

Boys Teams Predictions:

1. Valparaiso

2. LaPorte

3. Chesterton

4. Morgan Township

5. Warsaw

6. Munster

7. Crown Point

8. Lake Central

9. West Lafayette

10. Lafayette Jefferson

11. Harrison (WL)

12. Lowell

13. Iliana Christian

14. Portage

15. McCutcheon

16. Culver Academy

17. Plymouth

18. Frankfort

19. Rochester

20. Northwestern

Boys Team Commentary: Valparaiso has emerged as the favorite from this TIGHTLY bunched field. In fact, this field is so tightly bunched that you could possibly make a case for any of the top 11 teams to have a shot to qualify for the state meet. LaPorte seems to be in a great position to punch a qualifying ticket, but after that it is very difficult to predict. In fact, of all of the semi-state team races, this one is probably going to be the most exciting to watch. Because there are so many teams with a chance to qualify, we could see a very high team score for that sixth place team. It wouldn’t be impossible for a score around 230 to have a chance to advance. Additionally, keep an eye out for which teams have the best sixth runners because there could even be some tie scores when it is all said and done.

In the Mix to Win:

* Valparaiso- they've emerged as the favorite with a steadily improving team since Labor Day.

* LaPorte- their front three is awesome and that will get them to the state meet and potentially give them a great shot at upsetting Valpo

In Good Position to Qualify for State:

* ??



On the Bubble: Each of these teams is strong and shown the potential to qualify for the state finals. Morgan Township, Chesterton, Warsaw, and Crown Point have been towards the top of our semi-state rankings all season long, while Munster and Lafayette Jefferson have been "hot" lately with somewhat surprising regional wins. Lake Central and Harrison have defied the lower preseason rankings and clearly given themselves a shot to advance, while West Lafayette has been consistent and has two strong front runners. If this race were run 10 times we might see a different batch of teams advance to the state meet each time.

* Chesterton

* Morgan Township

* Warsaw


*Lake Central

*Crown Point

*West Lafayette

*Lafayette Jefferson

*Harrison (WL)

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