2020 Shelbyville Semi State Preview
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Annie Christie - Carmel
2. Sophie Kennedy – Park Tudor
3. Ellen Baker – North Central
4. Jasmine Klopstad - Carmel
5. Gretchen Farley – Park Tudor
6. Maria Mitchell – Hamilton Heights
7. Brenner Hanna - Greensburg
8. Bridgett Gallagher – Guerin Catholic
9. Kendall Martin - Brebeuf
10. Abby Lynch - Brownsburg
11. Cara Naas - Carmel
12. Lauren Klem – Franklin Community
13. Alivia Romaniuk - Carmel
14. Brenna Shaw – New Palestine 15. Brooklyn Edwards - Carmel
16. Kiersten Hill - Zionsville
17. Jenna Gruber – Cardinal Ritter
18. Ella DesJean – Franklin Central
19. Jessica Velez - Pike
20. Audrey Knoper – Western Boone
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* The front of this race is absolutely stacked. Any one of the top 7 could realistically win. It seems likely, however, that the Carmel duo of Christie and Klopstad will command much of the attention. Sophie Kennedy should be considered a co-favorite as well. She beat Klopstad at the Riverview Health Invitational and finished 5th at last year’s Indiana State Meet. Ellen Baker and Brenner Hanna can be considered the darkhorses here. Hanna typically flies under the radar due to her racing schedule and Baker has been steadily getting better as the season has progressed. After the top 7, the race is pretty wide open. A number of girls from the Carmel pack will try to pack the top 15 and Zionsville will hope to get a low stick or two in the top 20 as well.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Carmel
2. Zionsville
3. North Central
4. Franklin Central
5. Noblesville
6. Center Grove
7. Batesville
8. Pike
9. Brownsburg
10. Franklin Community
11. Westfield
12. New Palestine
13. Whiteland
14. Mt. Vernon
15. Plainfield
16. Indian Creek
17. Cardinal Ritter
18. Avon
19. Roncalli
20. Centerville
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Carmel Greyhounds – It’s Carmel up front with no real competition in sight. It’s not unlikely that Carmel could fit their top 5 girls in the top 20.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Zionsville Eagles – Despite overturning nearly their entire varsity roster from last year, the Eagles have improved just as you’d like to see right now. Their #1 runner has shown great consistency and looks poised for a breakthrough performance. Their depth has been better than expected as well. The key to the Eagles securing a top 2 finish will be getting their 2-5 runners packed closely together in the 20-40 area.
* North Central Panthers – The Panthers look stronger than Zionsville up front. Their #4 and #5 runners had great races at Regional as well. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see this team on the upswing as runner-up at this Saturday.
* Franklin Central Flashes – FC looked really strong at the Regional, putting their entire scoring roster inside the top 8 spots. They should be in really good position to make the trip to Terre Haute and could push for a Semi-State runner-up position.
On the Bubble:
* Brownsburg Bulldogs – With Lynch’s return, the Bulldogs will hope to pull just enough front runner points to mask their struggles at the #5 position. It will take a full team effort for them to make it, though.
* Noblesville Millers – With their depth, the Millers looks pretty safe to qualify for the State Meet.
* Center Grove Trojans – Center Grove is dealing with some injuries that are really hurting them at the back end of their scoring roster. Luckily, the team is deep, so not all hope is lost. With a good race, the Trojans can still qualify. * Franklin Community Grizzlies – Franklin is strong up front but struggles with depth. They will need a big race from their #5 in order to give them a chance. * Batesville Bulldogs – Batesville has a really good, young roster who is beginning to peak at just the right time. They nearly knocked off Center Grove at the Regional. If their upswing continues, this could be a cinderella team to State. * Pike Red Devils – Pike has really stepped it up the past two weeks. They have a low scorer in Velez and a solid #2 as well. If their #4 and #5 have a good race, they are most definitely in the mix. * Westfield Shamrocks – Westfield is super deep but in need of a front runner. If they can stick two runners in the top 25, it will dramatically increase their chances of qualifying. With a good peak, they are a dangerous team.
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Kole Mathison - Carmel
2. Travis Hickner - Noblesville
3. Will Jefferson - Whiteland
4. Paul Stamm – Cardinal Ritter
5. Jesus Garcia - Zionsville
6. Krishna Thirunavukkarasu - Brebeuf
7. Drew Costelow – Center Grove
8. Kai Conner - Westfield
9. Charlie Schuman - Carmel
10. Nate Killeen – North Central
11. Trevor Nolan - Brownsburg
12. Jacob Fisher - Carmel
13. Cole Kimmel - Noblesville
14. Cameron Todd - Brebeuf
15. Ezra Burrell - Brebeuf
16. Asher Propst - Noblesville
17. Matteo Rosio - Brebeuf
18. Collin Stevens - Brebeuf
19. Charlie Leedke - Carmel
20. Griffin Hennessey – Center Grove
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
*As we’ve seen all season, Hickner and Jefferson are not afraid to battle up front. Ultimately, Mathison has proven to be the class of the field thus far, though. Paul Stamm is another runner who could be a darkhorse to race into a top 3 spot. It was this race last year that Jesus Garcia began his ascent to elite status. Krishna has been as consistent as they come this year and should be just outside the lead pack. The top 20 will get really interesting between 10 and 20 as you’ll see Carmel, Brebeuf, and Noblesville all battling their 2-5 runners.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Carmel
2. Brebeuf
3. Noblesville
4. Center Grove
5. Westfield
6. Zionsville
7. Brownsburg
8. Franklin Central
9. Guerin Catholic
10. Ben Davis
11. Whiteland
12. Mt. Vernon
13. Greenfield Central
14. Avon
15. Batesville
16. Greenwood Community
17. Franklin Community
18. Plainfield
19. Warren Central
20. New Castle
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Carmel Greyhounds – The Greyhounds will rely on their incredible depth to ensure they walk away with a Semi-State Championship. The advantage they may have over Brebeuf is clearly their #1 runner. If they can stack points between Mathison and Krishna, they may be in good shape.
* Brebeuf Braves – Brebeuf had a great race at the Regional. Their #2-#5 looked really strong, matching Carmel and taking the advantage at the #5 position, enough to knock off the Greyhounds. Only time will tell if they can maintain that momentum.
* Noblesville Millers – Noblesville has incredible talent throughout their Varsity roster. Injuries have slowed them at times, but the Millers have the firepower to take on Brebeuf and Carmel.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Center Grove Trojans - Center Grove has great depth and a great front runner as well. With a breakout race, it wouldn’t be surprising for them to bust into the top 3, but they haven’t showed the consistency that the top 3 teams have shown yet.
On the Bubble:
* Zionsville Eagles – The Eagles have steadily improved their young roster throughout the season. They will need their #4 and #5 runners to step up in order for them to feel good about their chances.
* Westfield Shamrocks – The Shamrocks have been riding high the past few weeks. Their depth has panned out well for them and Conner gives them the kind of consistency you like to see in a State Meet qualifier.
* Brownsburg Bulldogs– Brownsburg has been just on the outside, looking in all season. They have a good resume though, and matchup well with Zionsville and Westfield. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see them making a trip to Terre Haute next weekend. * Franklin Central Flashes – Franklin Central actually has better depth than the two teams listed above, but struggle to get a low stick. If they can sneak their #1 into the top 15, the Flashes should have a really good chance. * Guerin Catholic Golden Eagles- Guerin has a really strong roster #1-#7, maybe better than any other team in this section. They really don’t have a weakness, and have to feel good about their chances on Saturday.
2020 New Prairie Semi State Preview
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Karina James- Lowell
2. Bailey Ranta- Chesteron
3. Lexi Allen- Culver Academy
4. Kaylie Politza- Valparaiso
5. Lillian Zelasko- New Prairie
6. Hailey Mansfield- West Lafayette
7. Jennifer Romero- Seeger
8. Ella Bensz- LaPorte
9. Hannah Moore- Northwestern
10. Emma Hellwege- Wheeler
11. Julyn Spidell- Kokomo
12. Jaelyn Burgos- Crown Point
13. Madilyn Calloway- Rochester
14. Hadessah Austin- Seeger
15. Amzie Maienbrook- Rensselear Central
16. Natalie Kransky- Lake Central
17. Morgan McCullough- Portage
18. Emma Bell- Kankakee Valley
19. Rachel Narjes- Lake Central
20. Emma McClellan- West Lafayette/Chayenne Stock- Valparaiso
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* Expect Lowell’s Karina James to lead the front pack. She is experienced, fast, and tough. Bailey Ranta (Chesterton) and Lexi Allen (Culver Academy) could challenge James up front, but it will be a challenge to unseat the Lowell super star. James nearly dipped under 18:00 at the regional and likely has her eyes on a potential state title next week.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Chesterton
2. Wheeler
3. Lake Central
4. Seeger
5. Valparaiso
6. West Lafayette
7. Crown Point
8. Culver Academy
9. Lowell
10. Warsaw
11. Harrison (WL)
12. McCutcheon
13. LaPorte
14. Portage
15. Rochester
16. Maconaquah
17. Highland
18. Benton Central
19. Hanover Central
20. Winamac
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Chesterton- they have been the top girls team in the area all season long and should be the favorites to win on Saturday
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Wheeler- Consistent performing team throughout the season, they should punch their ticket to state meet, and while they were only 5 points behind Chesterton at the regional, they were 14 seconds behind on team time.
* Lake Central- They are moving in the right direction at the right time. This is a strong pack running team that is in position to advance to the state finals.
* Seeger- Won the Harrison Regional fairly handily on the strength of their top 3. That group puts them in great position to advance again.
*Valparaiso- They could move up in the final results if Chayenne Stock returns to their lineup for semi-state
On the Bubble: This could be an amazing battle as these teams push for the final qualifying place or two.
* West Lafayette- Such a traditionally strong program. They will race tough
* Crown Point- They will be in the mix for that last qualifying spot
* Culver Academy- Front running keeps them clearly in the mix
* Warsaw- They won their regional and could be peaking at a perfect time
* Lowell- Like Culver, they will have a low stick up front which keeps them in it
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Lucas Guerra- Highland
2. Cole Raymond- LaPorte
3. Cole Simmons- Crown Point
4. Quinton Bock- Crown Point
5. Lionel Soriano- Harrison (WL)
6. Matthew Streeter- Chesterton
7. Brayden Curnutt- Western
8. Dieubeni Baributsa- Harrison (WL)
9. Anthony Saberniak- Crown Point
10. Henry Balagtas- West Lafayette
11. Elijah Stenburg- West Lafayette
12. Maxell Lindenmayer- Munster
13. Joshua Baltes- New Prairie
14. Cole Dolson- Chesterton
15. Jackson Bakker- Lowell
16. Justin VanProoyen- Illiana Christian
17. Logan Russell- Lake Central
18. Tyler Hachey- Washington Township
19. Owen Thomas- Morgan Township
20. Brady Vroom- Illiana Christian
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
* Clearly, Lucas Guerra is the one to beat. Guerra has been fairly dominant in 2020 and this weekend shouldn’t change that. The race for second could be intriguing with a number of runners shooting to break 16:00. Really, this entire top 20 is pretty wide open and a number of names not on the above list could find themselves earning All-Semistate status.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Crown Point
2. Chesterton
3. Warsaw
4. Lake Central
5. West Lafayette
6. Western
7. Harrison (WL)
8. LaPorte
9. Munster
10. Valparaiso
11. Morgan Township
12. New Prairie
13. Lafayette Jefferson
14. Hanover Central
15. Illiana Christian
16. Culver Academy
17. McCutcheon
18. Plymouth
19. Rossville
20. Manchester
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Crown Point- Like the Chesterton girls team, the Crown Point boys have been the class of this semi-state throughout the season and enter this weekend as the prohibitive favorites to take home the title.
In Good Position to Qualify for State/On the Bubble: This could be an epic battle for the remaining qualifying spots. Many of these teams are fairly evenly matched and could race their way to the state finals.
* Chesterton- dominating the Chesterton Regional is usually a pretty good indication that you are a state qualifying team and they dominated
* Warsaw- Quietly putting together a strong season
* Lake Central- probably need to race better than they did at the regional but very capable
* West Lafayette- traditionally strong program seems to be arriving just on time
* Western- have been consistently in the mix for a qualifying spot all season long
* Harrison (WL)- front running keeps them clearly in the mix
2020 New Haven Semi State Preview
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Zoe Duffus, 12, Carroll (FW)
2. Nicki Southerland, 9, Delta
3. Halle Hill, 12, Hamilton Southeastern
4. Addison Knoblauch, 9, Homestead
5. Addy Wiley, 11, Huntington North
6. Ashlyn Minton, 12, Carroll (FW)
7. Lauren Bales, 12, Norwell
8. Shelby Christman, 12, Carroll (FW)
9. Sarah Busch, 12, Bishop Luers
10. Sarah Mahnensmith, 12, Norwell
11. Haylee Hile, 10, Northridge
12. Anna Runion, 11, Fishers
13. Riley Winebrenner, 12, DeKalb
14. Nicole Marshall, 12, Penn
15. Brooke Hansen, 11, Carroll (FW)
16. Maggie Powers, 9, Hamilton Southeastern
17. Julie Smith, 11, Penn
18. Madelyn Ruch, 11, Carroll (FW)
19. Grace Newton, 10, Hamilton Southeastern
20. Katie Woods, 11, Bishop Dwenger
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* This is a stacked field, with several young ladies who will likely finish on the podium next weekend. Up front, two of the best runners in the state will battle for the individual semi state title – Carroll senior Zoe Duffus and Delta freshman Nicki Southerland. The last time these two raced each other was the Marion Invitational back on Labor Day weekend when Southerland trailed late but passed Duffus right before the line for the victory. Even though Southerland remains undefeated on the season, we are giving the slight edge to Duffus. Carroll teammates Ashlyn Minton and Shelby Christman should also be in the lead pack. HSE senior Halle Hill has put together a very impressive season. Also watch for Homestead freshman Addison Knoblauch, Huntington North junior Addy Wiley, and Norwell teammates Bales and Mahnensmith to be in the lead pack throughout this race. We anticipate a group of 7-10 runners together midway through the race and then eventually Duffus and Southerland separating from the field and dueling over the final kilometer.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Carroll (FW)
2. Hamilton Southeastern
3. Penn
4. Concordia Lutheran
5. Homestead
6. Fishers
7. Huntington North
8. Northridge
9. FW South Side
10. Oak Hill
11. Norwell
12. Leo
13. Bishop Dwenger
14. Delta
15. Elkhart
16. Mishawaka
17. Woodlan
18. South Bend St. Joseph
19. Pendleton Heights
20. Yorktown
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Carroll – The Chargers are the 5-time defending semi state champions and we expect that number to grow to 6 this weekend. Duffus is one of the best individuals in the state and they could realistically place their entire top 5 in the top 20 on Saturday. Senior Ashlyn Minton returned to the lineup at sectional after missing most of the races in September, which solidifies an already elite varsity squad. The Chargers are the 2-time defending state champions and they should win by a comfortable margin this weekend.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Hamilton Southeastern – Led by senior Halle Hill, the Royals are definitely a podium-level squad. We expect a strong 2nd place finish this weekend. Behind Halle Hill, sophomore Grace Newton and freshman Maggie Powers have been consistent for HSE this year and both could finish in the top 20 on Saturday.
* Penn – Penn does not have an elite frontrunner, but they have a really low 1-5 spread. Senior Nicole Marshall and juniors Morgan Gannon and Julie Smith lead by committee up front. Freshman Mary Eubank has been steady all fall, as well. Penn missed qualifying for state by 5 points last year, but we expect them to flip that script and finish around 3rd place this year.
* Concordia Lutheran – The Cadets grabbed the last qualifying spot out of the New Haven Semi State last year and they are strongly positioned to make it back-to-back state meet appearances. At the competitive West Noble regional, they placed 5 girls in the top 20 and had a 21-second spread from 1-5. If they can replicate that performance again this weekend, they should finish in the top 6.
* Homestead – Freshman phenom Addison Knoblauch might be the best cross country runner in Homestead school history. She should place very high this weekend. At Regional their 2-6 runners finished between 20:24-20:38. If they can push that pack up more like 20:00-20:20 this weekend they should finish between 4th and 6th and advance to state.
* Fishers – Junior Anna Runion leads the Tigers as they look to qualify for their 6th consecutive state meet. Elizabeth Barrett and Vera Schafer are solid at 2-3. If their 4-5 perform well this weekend, they should find themselves in the top 6.
On the Bubble:
* Huntington North – Led by junior Addison Wiley (2019 state champ in 1600 meters), the Vikings are coming off an impressive win at the Marion Regional. Their top 5 averaged 19:42 in that race (though we know how fast the course at Marion often runs). Huntington North could challenge for a top 6 finish with a great race this weekend.
* Northridge – Sophomore Haylee Hile has been a reliable frontrunner for the Raiders this fall. Tamenech Baylis and Claire Ritchie both ran sub-20:00 and finished top 10 in the Elkhart Regional on Saturday. In order for Northridge to finish top 6, they will need their 4 and 5 to race well this weekend. Northridge has qualified for 8 of the last 9 state meets – never count them out.
* FW South Side – The Archers are hoping for their first state meet appearance in school history. They have a trio of frontrunners in Lauren Walda, Seloni Licona, and Jaclyn Embry. Grace Gillie is a solid #4, but they are vulnerable at the 5 spot. They will need a perfect race to make a run at the top 6.
* Oak Hill – The Golden Eagles ran arguably their best race of the season at the Marion Regional. Senior Kinzie Robey finished 10th in that race and their 1-5 ranged from 19:39-20:33. With a great race, they could surprise everyone with a top 6 finish.
* Norwell – Their 3-5 runners are racing in the 21s, but their 1-2 are outstanding. Lauren Bales and Sarah Mahnensmith could both be top 10 on Saturday. If their 3-4-5 race well on Saturday the Knights could quickly move up in the final team standings.
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Izaiah Steury, 11, Angola
2. Nolan Satterfield, 11, Hamilton Southeastern
3. Bennett DuBois, 11, Hamilton Southeastern
4. Mariano Retzloff, 11, Penn
5. Spencer Carpenter, 12, Westview
6. Will Clark, 12, Fishers
7. Karsten Schlegel, 11, Concordia Lutheran
8. Will Marquardt, 11, Hamilton Southeastern
9. Matthew Leppert, 12, Fishers
10. Preston Sloffer, 11, Carroll (FW)
11. Braden Sweet, 12, Southwood
12. Cole Johnston, 11, Goshen
13. Deion Guise, 11, Bellmont
14. Remington Carpenter, 12, Westview
15. Jaylen Castillo, 12, Fishers
16. Robert Lohman, 11, Carroll (FW)
17. Ethan Baitz, 11, Homestead
18. Drew Hogan, 11, Goshen
19. Austin Hall, 11, Columbia City
20. Jaxon Miller, 10, Northridge
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
* There are several All-State caliber runners in this field, but the clear favorite is Angola junior Izaiah Steury. Steury ran 8:57 for 3200 meters on the track this summer and he continues to have an amazing, undefeated cross country season. We expect Steury to have company for the first half of this race, but he should gap the field after they pass the 10-minute mark and win by a comfortable margin. We expect HSE and Fishers to have multiple runners in the lead pack. Bennett DuBois (HSE) in particular has been running great recently for the Royals. Mariano Retzloff (Penn) is coming off a big win at regional. Spencer Carpenter (Westview) and Karsten Schlegel (Concordia Lutheran) will be near the front and Braden Sweet (Southwood) was the Marion Regional champion.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Hamilton Southeastern
2. Fishers
3. Concordia Lutheran
4. Goshen
5. Penn
6. Carroll (FW)
7. Homestead
8. Bellmont
9. Bishop Dwenger
10. Westview
11. Northridge
12. Oak Hill
13. Huntington North
14. Wabash
15. Pendleton Heights
16. New Haven
17. NorthWood
18. South Bend Adams
19. Monroe Central
20. Wapahani
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Hamilton Southeastern – This might be the best team in school history, which is saying a lot considering HSE has finished top 10 in the state finals 13 times since 2002. This is a junior-dominated team and they could put 3 or 4 runners in the top 15 this weekend. Satterfield, Marquardt, and DuBois are running great – if Jack Patrick has a good run HSE should win this race.
* Fishers – The Tigers are another elite (podium-contending) team. They are led by a trio of seniors – Will Clark, Matthew Leppert, and Jaylen Castillo. If they are going to win the team race this weekend they are going to put their 4 and 5 runners in the top 25 range. Sophomore Tate Meaux has been pretty consistent this year. Roth and Pulos are coming off good races at the regional. With a strong team race they could win this weekend.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Concordia Lutheran – Led by junior Karsten Schlegel, the Cadets are very strong this year – after winning the team state title a year ago. Fellow juniors Connelly and Adair have both been in and out of the top 20 semi state rankings throughout the season. Concordia likely cannot match HSE or Fishers at the 4-5 spots, but they are a solid bet to advance to Terre Haute for the 6th consecutive time. We predict a 3rd place finish this weekend.
* Goshen – A young Goshen team finished 7th at semi state last year, just 8 points away from advancing to the state finals. Led by juniors Cole Johnston and Drew Hogan, look for this team to qualify to the state meet for the first time since 2014. They are really strong through 4 runners, but had a 55-second gap from 4 to 5 at the regional this past weekend. We expect them to race well and finish in the top 6 this weekend.
On the Bubble:
* Penn – The Kingsmen have an outstanding frontrunner in junior Mariano Retzloff. If they can put 4 guys under 17:00 and their 5th in the low 17s (like they did at regional last weekend) – that should be enough for them to punch their ticket to state!
* Carroll (FW) – The Chargers won the state meet in 2016, but have been rebuilding the past two season (failing to qualify for state in either 2018 or 2019). This team has been improving each week and have a good shot at top 6 this weekend. Juniors Preston Sloffer and Robert Lohman have emerged over the past month and provide a solid 1-2 punch.
* Homestead – The Spartans are coming off back-to-back top 10 finishes at the state finals and find themselves squarely on the semi state bubble this year. Junior Ethan Baitz has been a solid frontrunner. Here are two scenarios for Homestead: A) Their 2-5 run between 16:50-17:30 this weekend and they finish just outside the top 6 or B) Their 2-5 run between 16:40-17:10 this weekend and they finish inside the top 6. That is how close the margin will likely be Homestead.
* Bellmont – The Braves have had a lot of really good teams, but have never qualified a team for the state finals. This might be their year! They have a great 1-2-3 in Guise, Garlinger, and Fuelling and they ran great last weekend at Marion Regional. The key for this team rests in their 4-5 runners. If they get big races from Johnson and Litchfield, they could make it to the show!
* Bishop Dwenger – The Saints do not have a designated frontrunner, but they make up for it with a tight pack (their 1-4 finished within 12 seconds at regional). Right now they are on the outside looking in. They will need the majority of their pack to finish under 17:00 on Saturday to have a shot at qualifying. Bishop Dwenger has not advanced to the state meet since 2013.
* Westview – The Warriors are one the best small school programs in Indiana, Westview has qualified for 4 of the past 5 state meets! They have an outside shot again this year, led by senior twins Spencer and Remington Carpenter. Their #5 is further back than other bubble teams; they will need an improved performance from that position this Saturday.
* Northridge – The Raiders are coming on strong in October! A few weeks ago we would not have considered them to be a bubble team, but they are racing their way into the mix. Sophomore Jaxon Miller is emerging as an elite frontrunner. If their 2-5 can collectively improve their regional results from a week ago, Northridge could be a surprise qualifier this weekend.
* Oak Hill – The Golden Eagles do not have a clear frontrunner, but put 5 guys between 16:25-17:41 at regional. They will need big races from their 4 and 5 runners in order to make a run at the top 6, since they don’t have an individual likely to finish in the top 20 this Saturday.
Brown County Semi-State Preview:
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Annalyssa Crain, 12, Edgewood
2. Mackenzie Barnett, 12, Columbus North
3. Andi VanMeter, 11, Jasper
4. Clara Crain, 10, Edgewood
5. Gnister Grant, 9, Northview
6. Jaydon Cirincione, 11, Floyd Central
7. Brianna Newell, 10, Columbus North
8. Lily Baker, 10, Columbus North
9. Abby Fleetwood, 10, Brown County
10. Emma Callahan, 10 Bloomington South
11. Bea Cakmak, 11, Bloomington North
12. Katie Winkler, 12, Heritage Hills
13. Jessica Meza, 10, Columbus North
14. Savanna Liddle, 10, Floyd Central
15. Ella Hayes, 9, Northview
16. Ally Wigand, 10, Jasper
17. Lily Myers, 10, Bloomington South
18. Hadley Gradolf, 10, Brown County
19. Jacquline Brasseale, Evansville Memorial
20. Kaitlyn Stewart, 9, Floyd Central
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
* Despite finishing seventh at the regional meet, in a race that her sister won, we forecast Edgewood senior Annalyssa Crain running away with this semistate. She is the only girl in this semistate that is a contender for the individual title, though quite a few could be individual medalists next week, most notably Columbus North senior Mackenzie Barnett. Floyd Central junior Jaydon Cirincione had the ninth best regional performance, per inccstats’ adjusted ratings from last week. Northview freshman Gnister Grant consistently ran under 19:00 earlier in the season and could be up toward the very front for much of this race.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Columbus North
2. Floyd Central
3. Northview
4. Bloomington North
5. Bloomington South
6. Jasper
7. Edgewood
8. Barr-Reeve
9. South Knox
10. Terre Haute South
11. Brown County
12. Seymour
13. Princeton
14. Corydon Central
15. Forest Park
16. Gibson Southern
17. Evansville Reitz
18. Columbus East
19. Heritage Hills
20. Jennings County
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Columbus North – The Bull Dogs have been the class of the semi-state since moving down from their previous central Indiana path nearly a decade ago. Expect that to remain the same at the start of this new decade. CN is a fringe contender for the state title next week; if both the top two teams both stumble, the Dogs are deep and consistent enough to shock the state.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Bloomington North – The Cougars finished second in the most competitive of the four regionals leading to this semistate. Even with one of its usual scorers presumably out for the remainder of the fall, BN is still a very safe bet to make its sixth consecutive state finals.
* Bloomington South – The Panthers have made the state meet for the last 13 years. Even with some of the availability issues that are afflicting some of the other teams in this race, South seems a very likely team to quality again. Sophomores Emma Callahan and Lily Myers have been very consistent this fall and provide the Panthers a great frontrunning duo at this level.
* Floyd Central – The Highlanders are likely the second best team in this semistate and a potential podium team for next week. Floyd easily won its regional last week, and junior Jaydon Cirincione gives the ‘Landers the requisite frontrunning that a team needs to finish in the top five in Terre Haute.
* Northview – The Knights have consistently been performing at a state meet level all year with both the frontrunning (freshman Gnister Grant is a potential All-Stater) and the depth to finish comfortably in the top six.
On the Bubble:
* Edgewood – The Mustangs have a great top two with the Crain sisters, likely scoring single digits through two runners with a 1-2 finish not completely out of the question. Edgewood will need to go deep for a final fifth scorer so the key will be performance of the third and fourth runners.
* Jasper – The Wildcats have the best shot of the two bubble teams, over 90% to finish in the top six on inccstats. Junior Andi VanMeter provides great frontrunning, and sophomore Ally Wigand had her first race back after a nearly month-long hiatus at the regional. Jasper is not especially deep, but the semi-state is not incredibly competitive after the top five teams and ‘Cats can stay with nearly all the team through three runners.
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff, 11, Columbus North
2. Spenser Wolf, 11, Forest Park
3. Camden Marshall, 12, Corydon Central
4. Abe Eckman, 11, Jasper
5. Andy Stohr, 12, Columbus North
6. Austin Pulkowski, 12, Columbus North
7. Matt Newell, 11, Columbus North
8. Matt Gambill, 11, Terre Haute South
9. Nolan Bailey, 11, Bloomington North
10. Carson Heath, 12, Martinsville
11. Evan Carr, 11, Columbus North
12. Will Conway, 9, Floyd Central
13. Cael Light, 12, Terre Haute South
14. Dylan Zeck, 10, Terre Haute North
15. Weston Naville, 11, Floyd Central
16. Collin Pruitt, 12, Columbus North
17. Jcim Grant, 9, Northview
18. Will Kiel, 11, Columbus North
19. Dylan Bland, 12, Southridge
20. Stuart Bennett, 11, Northview
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
* Columbus North junior Reese Kilbarger-Stumpff is the clear favorite here, though Forest Park junior Spenser Wolf and Cordyon Central senior Camden Marshall could definitely push him. Jasper junior Abe Eckman ran his best race of the season in winning the regional last week over Wolf and Marhsall. There are quite a few other potential All-Staters in this semistate, including multiple CN runners, but it would be surprising if one of those four didn’t win this weekend.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Columbus North 2. Floyd Central
3. Bloomington North
4. Northview
5. Bloomington South
6. Terre Haute North
7. Jasper
8. Terre Haute South
9. Jennings County
10. Seymour
11. Castle
12. Corydon Central
13. Borden
14. South Knox
15. Evansville Reitz
16. New Albany
17. Martinsville
18. Evansville Central
19. Brown County
20. Evansville Memorial
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Columbus North – The Bull Dogs have a 98.6% chance of winning this semistate according to inccstats’ season-long ratings. It is very possible that CN places all seven of its runners in the top twenty with the likely winner and a handful of potential All-Staters. North is the top-ranked team in Indiana, undefeated with its top runners and benefits from the return of All-Stater Matt Newell who ran his first 5k of the season at the regional. In addition, junior Will Kiel ran his best race of the season at the regional. This is the next step in North’s likely path to another state title.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
*Bloomington North – The Cougars have less depth than some of their close competitors in the semistate, but junior Nolan Bailey and sophomore Kyle Clark provide BN with a lot of frontrunning. With no seniors in the varsity (and eight juniors in the top nine, per inccstats ratings), the Cougars may be a year away from a possible podium team.
* Bloomington South – The Panthers are a likely state meet team with three back from last season’s ninth-place squad. South has been a little up and down this season but certainly not fluctuating enough to put its state meet hopes in jeopardy. The Panthers are without a frontrunner at this level of the tournament, but the depth provide enough security to start booking hotel rooms for Terre Haute.
* Floyd Central – The Highlanders are a clear number two in this semistate. Though that number two spot isn’t guaranteed, Floyd’s state meet qualification virtually is. The ‘Landers have a great frontunning trio and certainly enough depth to feel safe a week prior to the state finals. This is a fringe podium team if the team nails each spot of its state meet race.
* Northview – Even with a difference maker out for the year, the Knights are safe bet to make the state finals. This is a collaborative effort between three different classes for Northview to qualify for another state meet, including two freshmen likely scoring for them this week.
On the Bubble:
* Jasper – The Wildcats have an outside shot at the state meet. Junior Abe Eckman, who seems to be running his best at just the right time, gets Jasper off to a good start. Getting season best performances from the fourth and fifth runners will be key for Jasper, though this squad that scores four sophomores may be a year or even two away from its best shot.
* Terre Haute North – The Patriots are the most likely bubble team to advance. Sophomore Dylan Zeck could provide THN with frontrunning and finish in the top ten, though his performance has been somewhat inconsistent through the season. The Pats are deeper than some of the other contenders, and that security provided with Zeck’s ability to hang at the front of the race should put THN over the top.