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NEW HAVEN AND NEW PRAIRIE SEMI-STATE PREVIEWS

2022 New Haven Semi State Preview


Girls Individual Predictions:

1. Nicki Southerland, 11, Delta

2. Addison Knoblauch, 11, Homestead

3. Maggie Powers, 11, Hamilton Southeastern

4. Mary Eubank, 11, Penn

5. Sarah Maple, 9, Concordia Lutheran

6. Addison Lindsey, 10, East Noble

7. Ava Jarrell, 10, Pendleton Heights

8. Tame Baylis, 12, Northridge

9. Elise Peckinpaugh, 12, Homestead

10. Victoria Clibon, 12, Northrop

11. Lexi Panning, 11, Concordia Lutheran

12. Elizabeth Butler, 10, Hamilton Southeastern

13. Addison Smith, 10, Hamilton Southeastern

14. Caterina Perego, 9, Homestead

15. Lauren Saddington, 11, Homestead

16. Maren Wilson, 9, Northrop

17. Haylee Hile, 12, Northridge

18. Haile Schiffeneder, 10, Carroll (FW)

19. Dakotah Moore, 9, Northridge

20. Julia Economou, 12, Penn


How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold

This will be an elite individual race between Southerland and Knoblauch, runners that I consider the 2nd and 3rd best runners in the state. It is very likely that these two ill separate from the rest of the field by the time they hit the mile mark.

Southerland has been racing incredibly well lately, coming off a 17:05 performance at the Delta Regional. She would be the slightly favored runner here. However, Knoblauch raced sparingly this fall and she appears healthy and ready for these next two weeks. We expect these two top in the low 17s on a quick course at IWU.

Powers, Eubank, Maple and Lindsey, all of which are podium-level runners, will likely lead the chase pack.


Girls Teams Predictions:

1. Hamilton Southeastern

2. Homestead

3. Penn

4. Carroll (FW)

5. Concordia Lutheran

6. East Noble

7. Northridge

8. Northrop

9. Pendleton Heights

10. Fishers

11. NorthWood

12. Mishawaka

13. Norwell

14. SB Adams

15. Monroe Central

16. Adams Central

17. Yorktown

18. Huntington North

19. Eastbrook

20. FW South Side


Girls Team Commentary

In the Mix to Win:

* Hamilton Southeastern – The Royals are a podium-level team, led by junior Maggie Powers. HSE sat their entire varsity squad at regional, so they should be fresh for Saturday. We have three HSE girls ranked in the top 15, so they are strong up front. One question mark is Addison Smith: she has one raced one time in the last month.

* Homestead – Spartan frontrunner Addison Knoblauch has only raced 5 times this season, coming back to health after a spring injury. With her in the lineup Homestead is a podium-level team that will battle HSE for the title Saturday. Peckinpaugh, Saddington, and Perego give them good depth through 4. Throughout this season, they have struggled with a sizeable gap from 4 to 5. That gap will be vital over the next two weeks for this team.


In Good Position to Qualify for State:

* Penn – This team has veteran leadership up front in Eubank, Economou, and Stabnik. They have a pair of freshmen at 4-5. If Penn puts two girls in the top 20 this Saturday (which we predict they will) that will set a great foundation for them earning another trip to Terre Haute.

* Carroll (FW) – The Chargers have been up and down this season, at times looking like a top 10 state meet team and other teams looking like they are on the semi state bubble. They do not have an elite frontrunner, but they could easily place 4 girls in the top 30 this Saturday – and if they do that, they will be a virtual lock for a top 6 team finish.


On the Bubble:

* Concordia Lutheran – The young Cadets have been hard to figure out this fall. Freshman Sarah Maple has emerged as a legit frontrunner and junior Lexi Panning looked better at regional than she did the two races prior. They have decent depth, with their 3-7 packing up within 23 seconds of each other at regional. Even so, they are solidly on the bubble.

* East Noble – The Knights are looking for a return trip to the state finals and they are right in the mix. Sophomore Addison Lindsey is a great frontrunner. Key runners this Saturday will be Macey Colin and Rae David. They will need to run better this week than they ran at regional to put East Noble in the mix for a top 6 finish.

* Northridge – Never bet against the Raiders in October. Northridge is peaking at the right time, running their best race of the season last Saturday at regional. They are great at 1-3 in Baylis, Moore, and Hile. But … they are vulnerable at 4-5. Those final two scorers will likely decide if Northridge advances or not.

* Northrop – This has been a renaissance season for the Bruins. This is their best team in over a decade. Senior Victoria Clibon and freshman Maren Wilson lead this team into the semi state, where they are currently on the outside looking in. This team looked great at conference 3 weeks ago and not-so-great at regional. They will need a solid team race 1-5 if they are going to push their way into the top 6.



Boys Individual Predictions:

1. Sam Quagliaroli, 10, Fishers

2. Noah Bontrager, 9, Westview

3. Liam Bauschke, 10, Mishawaka

4. Tate Meaux, 12, Fishers

5. Luke Shappell, 12, Leo

6. Jaxon Miller, 12, Northridge

7. Nick Cook, 11, Wapahani

8. Tommy Claxton, 12, Goshen

9. Baylor Miller, 9, Northridge

10. Ash Caylor, 12, Hamilton Southeastern

11. Seth Price, 12, Liberty Christian

12. Bol Agwick, 11, SB Adams

13. Max Malloy, 10, Elkhart

14. David Gingerich, 11, Northridge

15. Owen Jackson, 11, Oak Hill

16. Nick Probst, 12, Penn

17. Conyer Wilson, 11, Northrop

18. Andrew Blake, 12, Pendleton Heights

19. Aaron Richter, 10, Elkhart

20. Grant Flora, 12, West Noble


How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold

Three runners stand above the rest of the field and they are all young: Quagliaroli (sophomore), Bontrager (freshman), and Bauschke (sophomore). The lead pack through the first half of the race will likely include these three plus: Meaux, Shappell, two of the Miller boys, Cook, Claxton, and Caylor. We do not expect much separation up front within the first 2K.

By the 2-mile mark we expect Quagliaroli, Bontrager, and Bauschke to be at the very front, clearing the rest of the field. The last time Bontrager and Bauscke raced was a month ago at New Haven Classic and Bontrager won by one second. Quagliaroli has not run against either of these other top guys this season.

A couple of runners in that top 10 range that ran particularly well at regional: Baylor Miller (Northridge freshman) and Seth Price (Liberty Christian senior).


Boys Teams Predictions:

1. Fishers

2. Northridge

3. Hamilton Southeastern

4. Penn

5. Goshen

6. Concordia Lutheran

7. SB Adams

8. Wapahani

9. Elkhart

10. Carroll (FW)

11. Wabash

12. Oak Hill

13. Leo

14. West Noble

15. Pendleton Heights

16. Angola

17. Bluffton

18. Norwell

19. Yorktown

20. Bellmont


Boys Team Commentary

In the Mix to Win:

* Fishers – The Tigers have amazing frontrunners, both Quagliaroli and Meaux are podium-level runners. Senior Austin Wilson has been a great #3 runner, but his performance at regional was sub-par. This is a veteran squad that ran 4 seniors, 2 juniors, and 1 sophomore at regional. If they race well, they are the favorites.

* Northridge – The Raiders have been an interesting team to watch this season. They probably cannot match up with Fishers at 1-2, but they do have a better #3 runner than Fishers. Brothers Jaxon Miller and Baylor Miller as well as David Gingerich have been running great. They will need big races from their 4-5 runners to challenge Fishers for the team title.


In Good Position to Qualify for State:

* Hamilton Southeastern – This has been a great so-called “rebuilding year” for the Royals. Senior Ash Caylor has stepped up as a legit frontrunner and freshman Liam Powers has been impressive. HSE likely will not repeat as semi state team champions, but they should comfortably advance to the state finals.

* Penn – Senior Nick Probst is a good frontrunner, but the strength of the Kingsmen is their team depth. They commonly have a 1-5 gap under 30 seconds, which is outstanding. This a varsity squad with mostly juniors and sophomores. They should qualify for state this year and pave the way toward a really special 2023 campaign.

* Goshen – Seniors Tommy Claxton and Luis Loera are legit frontrunners. This team is sometimes vulnerable at 4-5. If they can put 2 in the top 10-15 this Saturday and then have solid performances at 3-5, they should be able to advance to the state finals.


On the Bubble:

* Concordia Lutheran – With Will Schlegel back in the lineup, the Cadets are in good position to earn a trip to Terre Haute. They are a relatively young squad, without a senior in their top 5. This is going to be close, but the Cadets are right there in the mix.

* South Bend Adams – Junior Bol Agwick has developed into a great frontrunner this year. They are typically good at 2-4, but then a big gap to #5. Can they finish top 6 this Saturday even with a #5 runner in the low 18:00 range?

* Wapahani – Nick Cook is very good, so they are good to go at the #1 spot. Behind Cook is a trio of seniors. If they all three race well this week, Wapahani could move all the way up toward a top 6 finish.

* Elkhart – Elkhart is great at 1-2 with Malloy and Richter. However, at regional they had over a minute gap between #2 and #3. That gap has to come down drastically for Elkhart to challenge for the top 6.

* Carroll (FW) – The Chargers do not have an elite frontrunner, but they are a solid squad that typically has a 1-5 gap at 1 minute or less. They need their entire top 5 to run about 15 seconds faster to legitimately push for the top 6.



2022 New Prairie Semi State Preview


Girls Individual Predictions:

1. Lillian Zelasko- New Prairie

2. Josefina Rastrelli- Warsaw

3. Hannah Moore- Northwestern

4. Cheyanne Stock- Valparaiso

5. Peyton Bucher- Morgan Township

6. Courtney Adams- Northwestern

7. Zoe Seward- Rochester

8. Cassandra Cohen- Hobart

9. Henrietta Schminke- West Lafayette

10. Annie Dunford- West Lafayette

11. Austin Hadessah- Seeger

12. Emerysn Bland- Morgan Township

13. Celeste Gram- Culver Academies

14. Grace Thomas- Valparaiso

15. Kaitlyn Manfra- Harrison (WL)

16. Kadence Fox- Manchester

17. Alyssa Dunlap- Chesterton

18. Abby Jordan- Maconaquah

19. Lila Gilesse- LaPorte

20. Madisyn Mikels- Portage


How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold

Look for Lillian Zelasko to lead the field in her last race on her home course. She flew to an outstanding 17:55 at the regional last Saturday and has experience, speed, and toughness. Warsaw’s Josefina Rastrelli has had a fantastic season and her 18:16 at the Culver regional puts her squarely in the individual champion conversation. This is a “return engagement” as these two raced head-to-head at the New Prairie Invitational and the Culver Invitational back in September. Zelasko narrowly defeated Rastrelli at the Culver Invite, atoning for a 13 second defeat to Rastrelli at New Prairie. Does this give Zelakso the edge? Maybe, but expect Rastrelli to make Zelasko work hard through the middle of the race. Don’t expect a big gap from the fifth place finisher to the twentieth placer; in fact, it’s entirely possible that someone not listed in the top 20 above places within the top 15.


Girls Teams Predictions:

1. Valparaiso

2. Warsaw

3. Morgan Township

4. West Lafayette

5. Crown Point

6. Lake Central

7. Kouts

8. Chesterton

9. Maconaquah

10. Portage

11. Harrison (WL)

12. Illiana Christian

13. Western

14. Faith Christian

15. Winimac

16. Manchester

17. Highland

18. Benton Central

19. Lafayette Jeff

20. Lowell


Girls Team Commentary

In the Mix to Win:

* Valparaiso


In Good Position to Qualify for State:

* Warsaw

* Morgan Township


On the Bubble:

* West Lafayette

* Crown Point

* Lake Central

* Kouts

* Chesterton

* Maconaquah

*Portage

*Harrison (WL)


This is no joke…eleven teams enter this semi-state with a legitimate chance to advance to the state finals. While Valparaiso is the clear cut favorite, this looks to be the type of race where anything could happen. Depth could play a big factor in the teams that advance. Morgan Township defeated Warsaw at the New Prairie Invite back in September so Warsaw, the Culver regional champs, look to turn the tables this weekend. After those three teams it is very much a scramble for the last three qualifying positions. These teams have gone back and forth against each other all season long with West Lafayette and Crown Point coming off of outstanding regional performances. Is that positive momentum that the Devils and Bulldogs have begun or is that the best performance we’ll some from them? Lake Central, Chesterton, and Portage all have strong pack running tendencies and that could be the difference maker for any of them to grab a top six spot, while Kouts and Maconaquah represent the small and medium schools looking to knock off the larger schools in this field. Kouts will need to trim down their 1-5 compression to advance but that seems possible. Maconaquah has a young group that could rise to the occasion and surprise the field. Harrison has been close to West Lafayette a few times during the season and could pull out a top 6 team finish with an improved fourth and fifth runner.


Boys Individual Predictions:

1. James Dillabough- Valparaiso

2. Mason Nobles- Valparaiso

3. Ryan York- Hanover Central

4. Jay Pillai- LaPorte

5. Shane Conroy- Portage

6. Elijah Stenburg- West Lafayette

7. Jaiden Goins- Harrison (WL)

8. Joseph Lapatra- Griffith

9. Hayden Kemple- Clinton Prairie

10. Jackson Tuck- Chesterton

11. Brayden Sobecki- LaPorte

12. Josh Tuck- Chesterton

13. Evan O’Connor- Chesterton

14. Tristen Wuethrich- Rensselear Central

15. Ralph Brown- Munster

16. Christopher Angeles- Frankfort

17. Sam Sienkowski- Valparaiso

18. Austin Wojcik- Lake Central

19. Leighton Dodt- Pioneer

20. Albert Rajwa- West Lafayette


How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold

The Valparaiso duo of Dillabough and Nobles have placed 1-2 in a number of races this season and they look to continue that trend at the NP Semi-State on Saturday. That will be easier said than done in this talented and deep field. It seems unlikely that there is much separation among the top 10 runners within the first mile which should add to the excitement of this race. Expect someone to break the race open in the middle mile. Pillai, York, and Stenburg all bring senior experience to this race and will likely hang around the front of the pack for much of the race and any of them are capable of pushing to the front in mile 2. Portage’s Shane Conroy has been racing very well since the New Prairie Invite and could be a sleeper to push the Valpo duo and possibly steal a victory.


Boys Teams Predictions:

1. Valparaiso

2. LaPorte

3. Chesterton

4. Warsaw

5. Lake Central

6. West Lafayette

7. Portage

8. Crown Point

9. Harrison (WL)

10. Illiana Christian

11. Clinton Prairie

12. Culver Academies

13. McCutcheon

14. Rensselear Central

15. Munster

16. Lowell

17. Frankfort

18. Rochester

19. Maconaquah

20. Cass


Boys Team Commentary

In the Mix to Win:

* Valparaiso

In Good Position to Qualify for State:

* LaPorte

* Chesterton

*Warsaw

* Lake Central


On the Bubble:

* West Lafayette

* Portage

* Crown Point

* Harrison (WL)


Valparaiso has been the class of this semi-state all season long and they look to cap that off with a repeat of their title from last year on the famed New Prairie course. It will take a fairly large upset to knock off the Vikings, but with strong front running both LaPorte and Chesterton are positioned to at least make Valparaiso work hard for the championship trophy. While Chesterton has been a bit up and down this season, their performance at the Duneland conference meet showed how strong they can be in a championship level race. LaPorte has been steadily improving since the New Prairie Invite and has a top duo in Pillai and Sobecki that won’t score many more points than the Valparaiso top two. Things really get interesting after those three teams…this race could answer the classic question: is it more important to have a tight-knit pack running team, or a team that is led by a top-flight front runner? While Warsaw and Lake Central use excellent pack running, West Lafayette and Portage rely a bit more on front running. Much like in the girls race, there are MANY teams with a legitimate chance to qualify for the state meet with nearly ten teams heading to the starting line with thoughts of a top six team finish. Crown Point is one of those teams. They sat a couple potential scorers at the regional level and they have a great tradition of qualifying for the state meet. Harrison (WL) has had some epic battles with their rival, West Lafayette, this season and the Raiders have to think that if they can knock off the neighboring Red Devils then they’ll have a great chance to punch their ticket to the state finals.

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