IHSAA STATE FINALS PREVIEW!

We start with the girls preview today with the boys to be added tomorrow.

2026 Girls State Meet Preview

Individual Predictions:

1. Anya Zoeller, 11, Hamilton Southeastern

2. Addison Bautista, 10, Terre Haute North

3. Annabel Pollert, 12, Carmel

4. Daphne Weller, 11, FW Concordia

5. Kenya Leitch, 12, Columbia City

6. Macey Thompson, 12, Lake Central

7. Larkin Taylor, 12, Carmel

8. Clare Lebrija, 11, FW Homestead

9. Jenna Walker, 11, Kankakee Valley

10. Lana Bruggeman, 11, Lake Central

11. Zoe Gebhart, 12, Hamilton Southeastern

12. Avery Swift, 9, Center Grove

13. Emery Knoblauch, 9, FW Homestead

14. Lilly Higgins, 10, Guerin Catholic

15. Aliyah Yorek, 9, Heritage Christian

16.Teresina Cordes, 9, Wabash

17. Leighton Archer, 10, FW Concordia

18. Alayna Bruckner, 12, Eastbrook

19. Shreya Nayee, 11, Penn

20. Lila Van Hoveln, 12, Penn

21. Chloe Tragesser, 10, Guerin Catholic

22. Lexi Kollbaum, 12, Bloomington South

23. Krista Sytsma, 12, Kankakee Valley

24. Caitlin Hawkins, 11, Fishers

25. Gabrielle Goedeker, 10, Whiteland

How the Individual Race Might Unfold

Carmel senior Annabel Pollert was the runaway favorite through September. Then Hamilton Southeastern junior was the first Indiana finisher at the Nike XC Town Twilight to reassert herself as a title contender. In the tournament, it has been all Terre Haute North sophomore Addyson Bautista, who had the best adjusted rating in the sectional by 13 seconds and then by 28 seconds in the regional round after blitzing the Brownsburg Regional course in 16:32, winning over a stellar field that included Pollert. Those three, including Concordia junior Daphne Weller figure to be the top contenders. Lake Central Macey Thompson senior is the top returner from last year’s state meet when she finished second. 

Teams Predictions:

1. Carmel

2. FW Homestead

3. Lake Central

4. FW Concordia

5. Guerin Catholic

6. Westfield

7. Zionsville

8. Whiteland

9. Floyd Central

10. Columbus North

11. Fishers

12. Avon

13. Penn

14. Hamilton Southeastern

15. Columbia City

16. Heritage Christian

17. Morgan Township

18. Northridge

19. FW Carroll

20. Munster

21. FW Dwenger

22. Brownsburg

23. Greensburg

24. Jasper

25. Bloomington South

Team Commentary

In the Mix to Win:

* Carmel - The Greyhounds are looking for a third consecutive state championship. The frontrunning duo of Annabel Pollert and Larkin Taylor have already led Carmel to a pair of state championships in both cross country and track & field. Junior Margo Halle will be key here for the ‘Hounds; she was very good in state meets as a freshman and sophomore in contributing to team victories. She has missed meets this season, including the sectional, but she was back to her usual performance in the regional. A bounceback race from freshman Olivia Ruch would be enough to secure the win. In a mock state meet based solely on adjusted performances from the regional, Carmel was second, just 14 points back from Lake Central, even with sub-par races from key runners. In projections based on the entire season, Carmel is six points behind Lake Central.

* Homestead - The Spartans legitimized themselves as a contender in winning the Nike XC Town Twilight four weeks ago. Like the other two contenders, Homestead has two frontrunners in freshman Emery Knoblauch and junior Clare Lebrija, the latter of whom missed the sectional but has otherwise been solid in every race. Senior Lucy Kramer could be the Spartans’ X-factor. She was key in Homestead’s state championship team in 2023, which was a pretty sizable upset at the time. In the mock meet based on regional results, Homestead was seven points behind Carmel and 21 points back from Lake Central. For entire-season projections, Homestead is 19 points back from winning on average.

* Lake Central - This team has been the favorite in the second half of the season and leads both mock meets based on regional results (by 14 points) and by season-long projections (by six points). The frontrunning duo of senior Macey Thompson and junior Lana Bruggeman get LC off to a strong start in scoring. Freshman Willow Bruggeman could provide LC with its biggest advantage; if she’s in the top 40 overall, that could be a massive advantage over the other two contenders that would be tough to make up at any other position. History illustrates that younger athletes have a wider variance in performance on the LaVern Gibson course.

In Solid Shape for the Podium:

-While our top three teams all enjoy close to ninety percent or better odds to finish in the top five, per inccstats’ projections, the rest of the field is much more compact.

In the Mix for a Podium Finish:

* Avon - The Orioles enjoyed a great race at the regional round. The mock meet based on those adjusted performances have Avon just five points back from the podium. If the O’s can recreate that team race on the big stage, they could earn medals.

* Columbus North - The Bull Dogs are perhaps the least likely of this group to finish on the podium, but this is a program with a lengthy history of overperforming at the state meet. A great pack performance could spring North to a surprising finish.

* Floyd Central - The Highlanders are right in the mix, just five back from podium in mock meet based on regional performances. Floyd has a good top trio in juniors Isabella Milliner and Noel Nifong along with sophomore Olivia Hopf. Likely one will need to finish in the top 25 for the ‘Landers to earn medals.

* FW Concordia - The Cadets have been state runners-up the past three years. Junior Daphne Weller and sophomore Leighton Archer help Concordia stay even with any team. A big race from senior Maddie Gentz could comfortably put the Cadets on the podium and perhaps on the fringes of title contention.

* Guerin Catholic - The Golden Eagles definitely have the foundation of a podium team in frontrunners Lilly Higgins and Chloe Tragesser. The depth is good enough, especially with sophomore Jillian Tichenor improving in October.

* Westfield - Availability takes a huge chunk out of the Shamrocks’ title chances, but Westfield could definitely still finish in the top five. The ‘Rocks still have two potential All-Staters in senior Alivia Lozier and freshman Sydney Decker. This feels like a group ready for a breakout performance.

* Whiteland - The Warriors had a breakout race in the regional round. Whiteland is 31 points ahead of sixth in the mock meet based on regional adjusted ratings despite being ranked just ninth over the course of the season. How sustainable was last week’s spike in performance?

* Zionsville - The Eagles are lurking just back of the podium based on regional results. A return to form after a sub-par race last weekend from freshman Lilly Gahl would put Zionsville in a great position to finish in the top five.