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Updated: May 31, 2021


100 Meter Dash

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Taylor Herbert, 12, Lawrence Central

2. Ella Scally, 11, Fishers

3. Tajaina McKenzie, 10, Northrop

4. Camryn Dunn, 11, Chesterton

5. Melissa Fritz, 12, Lake Central

Based on season best performances Herbert is the clear favorite – her 11.74 performance at the MIC is nearly a quarter-second faster than anyone else. Scally has been solid all year, her 12.30 at regional is not indicative of how fast she truly is. McKenzie is interesting as her 11.99 seemed to come out of nowhere (she ran 12.53 at sectional).

200 Meter Dash

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Ramiah Elliott, 11, North Central (Ind.)

2. Taylor Herbert, 12, Lawrence Central

3. Tacoria Humphrey, 12, Warren Central

4. Ella Scally, 11, Fishers

5. Alana Springer, 11, Avon

This is an interesting dual between Herbert (100/200 specialist) and Elliott (200/400 specialist). Both have an identical 24.71 season best. We will give the slightest of edges to Elliott since she won the regional last week. Humphrey and Scally also boast sub-25 second season bests.

400 Meter Dash

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Ramiah Elliott, 11, North Central (Ind.)

2. Amiyah Davis, 12, Bloomington South

3. Alexia Smith, 10, Evansville Bosse

4. Camryn Dunn, 11, Chesterton

5. Jaylie Lohmeyer, 11, Harrison (WL)

Elliott was the state champion in this event back in 2019 and is the #1 seed coming in to state. Her biggest competition will be Davis, whose season best 55.84 came all the way back on April 6. We give the edge to Elliott. Smith (Bosse) has potentially been overlooked all the way in the southwest corner of the state, but she ran a sub-57 in the regional last week.

800 Meter Run

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Kaylie Politza, 11, Valparaiso

2. Addy Wiley, 11, Huntington North – 1600/800 double

3. Nicki Southerland, 9, Delta – 1600/800 double

4. Abigail Lynch, 12, Brownsburg

5. Ellie Lengerich, 12, East Central

I think fresh legs will rule the day in this event. Wiley would likely be the favorite in this event fresh, but the 1600/800 double is going to be difficult for both Wiley and Southerland. I expect the 1600 will be very fast and it will be tough to double back off that. Politza has potential to run 2:08-2:09 range and will be fresher in this event- 4x8/800 is a much easier double than 1600/800. Do not overlook Lynch fresh in this event, either – two years ago at the state track meet she ran an amazing 4:48/2:09 double.

1600 Meter Run

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Addy Wiley, 11, Huntington North

2. Karina James, 11, Lowell

3. Nicki Southerland, 9, Delta

4. Maria Mitchell, 12, Hamilton Heights

5. Halle Hill, 12, Hamilton Southeastern

This is a battle between the 11th grade state champions: Wiley was the 1600 state champion in 2019 and James was the cross country state champion this past fall. Southerland is coming off a big 4:56/2:11 double at regional. There are also four seniors who could be dangerous in this race: Hill (Hamilton Southeastern), Mitchell (Hamilton Heights), Allen (Culver Academies), and Christie (Carmel). This field is fast up front and has elite depth (7 girls this field have run 4:56 or faster this year).

3200 Meter Run

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Lily Cridge, 10, Bishop Chatard

2. Annalyssa Crain, 12, Edgewood

3. Sophia Kennedy, 10, Park Tudor

4. Ellen Baker, 12, North Central (Ind.)

5. Annie Christie, 12, Carmel – 1600/3200 double

On paper this is an historically great field of 3200 runners. The leading trio are ranked #2, #3, and #4 in Indiana all-time state history with those performances all coming last week at Regional. Cridge (10:10 PR) did not run in the cross country tournament this fall, even though many considered her the individual favorite for the state title. Kennedy (10:14 PR) is racing as well as she ever has and Crain is in the mix for her first individual state title in her final high school season. These three should clear the field and race each other for the title.

100 Meter Hurdles

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Rachel Mehringer, 10, Forest Park

2. Morgan Patterosn, 11, Northrop

3. Jordan Yanders, 12, Merrillville

4. Makensie Kramer, 12, Center Grove

5. Kobi Scott, 10, Northrop

Two girls stand above the field in this event: Mehringer (14.39 SB) and Patterson (14.42 SB). Patterson comes in as the #1 seed based on regional performances, but Mehringer is #1 on the season-long leaderboards. Kramer, Yanders, and Scott all have season bests between 14.76-14.80. Yanders made the final in this event in the 2019 state meet. This is a big event for Northrop in the team race, with the potential to score 15+ points.

300 Meter Hurdles

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Reese Sanders, 11, Cathedral

2. Morgan Patterson, 11, Northrop

3. Taylor Schoonveld, 11, Kankakee Valley

4. Mary Bea Sowinski, 10, Bishop Chatard

5. Kiana Siefert, 11, Noblesville

Sanders is a big favorite in this event, with an all-time elite season best of 42.94. She is 1.6 seconds faster than the second-best runner in the state. Patterson and Schoonveld both enter with sub-45 second times from regional. Fourth and fifth are up for grabs, with several runners coming in with times ranging from 45.2 to 45.9.

4x100 Meter Relay

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Northrop

2. North Central (Ind.)

3. Zionsville

4. Lawrence Central

5. Merrillville

Will Elliott run the 4x100 for NC? If so, they are the slight favorite. Without her, Northrop is favored. A dropped baton or exchange zone mishap from either team could play huge in the team competition. Zionsville had a great run at regional and LC, Merrillville, and Fishers all feature some electric athletes in this relay.

4x400 Meter Relay

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Cathedral

2. Zionsville

3. Hamilton Southeastern

4. Carmel

5. Chesterton

Cathedral has been the best 4x4 squad all year. Zionsville put up a great performance at regional. HSE and Carmel also come in with sub-4:00 regional times. We include Chesterton on this list because we see a big leg from Camryn Dunn vaulting them into the top 5.

4x800 Meter Relay

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Columbus North

2. Bishop Chatard

3. Carmel

4. Chesterton

5a.. Fishers

5b. Valparaiso

This event can be hard to predict because the teams that qualify are not always the same teams that line up at the state meet. Some teams pull their #1/#2 runner(s) off this relay to be fresh for their individual events and some teams do not. Having said that, three teams enter with sub-9:20 season bests: Bishop Chatard, Carmel, and Columbus North.

High Jump

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Tacoria Humphrey, 12, Warren Central

2. Isabella Jackson, 12, Whiteland

3. Taylor Schoonveld, 11, Kankakee Valley

4. Ellie Lengerich, 12, East Central

5. Malina Miller, 10, Noblesville

Humphrey and Jackson the top 2 jumpers in this field with season bests of 5-10 and 5-9, respectively. They both cleared 5-8 and finished #2 and #3 in this event two years ago. This could be an awesome competition between those two. Lengerich has a season best of 5-7. After that, there are a LOT of jumpers between 5-3 and 5-6. Watch for one of the Noblesville sophomores (Miller & Hassan) to finish in the top 5.

Long Jump

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Michelle Nazarov, 11, Zionsville

2. LaTreasure Johnson, 12, Lake Central

3. Elise Gordon, 12, New Albany

4. Ellie Lengerich, 12, East Central

5. Tajaina McKenzie, 10, Northrop

Nazarov comes in as the #1 seed with her 18-8 jump at regional. Johnson was 2nd at the state meet in this event in 2019 (18-11.5). This event is wide open. 15 girls statewide jumped over 18 feet at some point this season, but nobody went further than 18-8.5. All it takes is one big jump from one of those athletes and there are a number of girls who could win this event.

Pole Vault

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Taylor Jarosinski, 12, Center Grove

2. Tristan Barr, 12, Carmel

3. Josephine Gery, 12, Homestead

4. Alison Casey, 12, Fishers

5. Anne Busse, 12, Zionsville

This is going to be an awesome competition to watch once the bar hits 11-6 and higher. The top 5 athletes are all seniors and all boast season bests within 3 inches of each other – Jarosinski 12-6, Barr 12-5, Gery/Casey/Busse 12-3. Jarosinski was state runner-up in 2019 while Gery and Casey finished 4th and 5th, respectively. The Floyd Central junior duo are wild cards (Davis and Zeinemann) – one of them could finish in the top 5.

Shot Put

Top 5 Predictions:

1. Erikka Hill, 12, Shenandoah

2. Emily Herndon, 12, Columbus North

3. Averi Parker, 12, Lewis Cass

4. Kilah Smith, 12, Churubusco

5. Ikeava Bryant, 12, McCutcheon

Hill is the clear favorite, having thrown in the high 47-foot range multiple times this year. Hill was the 2019 state champion in this event. Parker is the only other athlete to throw 44 this year. Herndon is coming off a strong regional performance. Smith and Bryant have been good all year. This is a solid field of senior shot putters.


Top 5 Predictions:

1. Mia Pulianas, 12, Elkhart

2. Averi Parker, 12, Lewis Cass

3. Erikka Hill, 12, Shenandoah

4. Morgan Murff, 12, Lawrence Central

5. Avery Koch, 12, Brownstown Central

Pulianas is the clear favorite, with a season best (156-9) more than 11 feet further than the #2 seed. Parker comes in with #2 seed of 144-9. After Parker, there are several athletes who have thrown between 130 and 136 feet this year.

Team Competition

Top 10 Predictions:

1. Northrop

2. North Central (Ind.)

3. Fishers

4. Lawrence Central

5. Carmel

6. Zionsville

7. Noblesville

8. Cathedral

9. Chesterton

10. Bishop Chatard / Center Grove / Warren Central / Hamilton Southeastern

Northrop can score 45+ points and they are probably the only team in this field that can do that. North Central is probably capped out somewhere between 35-40 points. Northrop should score big in the hurdles (Patterson) and short sprints/long jump (McKenzie). North Central should score big in the 200/400 (Elliot), short relays, and Baker in the 3200. After Northrop and North Central, there are probably 6-8 teams that could score between 25-30 points – so predicting the #3 to #10 teams is very difficult.

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