2022 Brown County Semi State Preview
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Julia Kiesler – 12 – Columbus North
2. Lily Baker – 12 – Columbus North
3. Lily Myers – 12 – Bloomington South
4. Heidi Meade – 12 – Princeton
5. Haley Meade – 12 – Princeton
6. Clara Crain – 12 - Edgewood
7. Kaitlyn Stewart – 11 – Floyd Central
8. Xavery Wiseman – 10 – Pike Central
9. Savanna Liddle – 12 – Floyd Central
10. Brianna Newell – 12 – Columbus North
11. Peyton Smith – 11 – Linton-Stockton
12. Ally Wigand – 12 – Jasper
13. Hannah Crain – 9 – Edgewood
14. Jessie McCoy – 12 - Charlestown
15. Hadley Gradolf – 12 – Brown County
16. Julie Klaus – 12 – Columbus North
17. Ellia Hayes – 11 – Northview
18. Hallie Miler – 12 – Northview
19. Cordelia Hoover – 11 – Evansville Reitz
20. Ellen White – 12 – Columbus North
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
The Columbus North senior duo of Julia Kiesler and Lily Baker are well ahead of the field, nearly a minute so. Both have a great chance of finishing in the top ten the next week. Beyond those two, there are quite a few potential All-Staters but none likely to challenge the Dogs for the top two places.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Columbus North
2. Bloomington South
3. Floyd Central
4. Princeton
5. Edgewood
6. Northview
7. Corydon Central
8. Jasper
9. South Knox
10. Bloomington North
11. Charlestown
12. Forest Park
13. Seymour
14. Evansville Reitz
15. Telll City
16. Terre Haute South
17. Austin
18. Castle
19. Pike Central
20. Columbus East
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Columbus North should win pretty convincingly a week ahead of the highly anticipate match-up against Noblesville, which projects to be very close. The Dogs should score three points through two runners at the semistate with those two frontrunners combining for no more than five at the state meet.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Bloomington South has clearly asserted itself as the second best team in the south over the last few weeks and a longshot podium team in Terre Haute next week.
* Floyd Central could possibly push Bloomington South for second but is comfortably into the state meet. Like many of the probably state meet teams, the ‘Landers have possibly two in the top ten team scorers.
* Princeton looks likely to make it consecutive state meet trips as a team. The Meade Sisters give the Tigers a good start with adequate depth to back them up.
On the Bubble:
* Corydon Central is likely the first team out. In our mock meet based on regional results, Corydon is nearly eighty points back, though it’s much closer taking the entire season into account.
* Edgewood has run really well the last few weeks, but the Mustangs have depth concerns. They’ll need to be on at all five positions to advance.
* Northview is probably a safe bet, but the trajectory of the Knights season is opposite many of the other contenders to advance. Solid races across the line-up should get the job done this week, though.
* Bloomington, Jasper and South Knox could beat some of the teams listed on the bubble but likely won’t finish in the top six, though it isn’t out of the question.
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Clayton Guthrie – 12 – Columbus North
2. Aidan Lord – 12 – New Albany
3. Will Russell – 12 – Columbus North
4. Jaryn Weinel – 12 – Jasper
5. Ryan Rheam – 11 – Bloomington South
6. Aaron Lord – 12 – New Albany
7. Martin Barco, IV – 11 - Martinsville
8. Mateo Mendez – 12 – Columbus North
9. Dylan Zeck – 12 – Terre Haute North
10. Chase Austin – 12 – Brown County
11. Jcim Grant – 11 – Northview
12. Jackson Nolan – 10 – Evansville Reitz
13. Brandon Rice – 12 – Austin
14. Jack Gildea – 12 – Bloomington South
15. Jacob Mitchell – 9 – Bloomington North
16. Kyle Clark – 12 – Bloomington North
17. Noah Nifong – 10 – Floyd Central
18. Nolan King – 12 – Evansville Central
19. Harrison Hulsman – 12 - Jasper
20. Sawyer Mossberger – 10 – Evansville Reitz
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
New Albany’s Aidan Lord came out of the gate blazing and has, at times, looked like the second best runner in the state. That may still be the case, but the gap seems to have narrowed from the rest of the state in October. Columbus North senior Clayton Guthrie has had a different progression. The individual race is likely to come down to those two if Floyd Central junior Will Conway doesn’t race, and reports indicate that he won’t the rest of this season. Guthrie’s teammate Will Russell and Jasper senior Jaryn Weinel could factor in as well with Martinsville junior Martin Barco an interesting darkhorse contender.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Columbus North
2. Bloomington North
3. Bloomington South
4. Floyd Central
5. Jasper
6. New Albany
7. Austin
8. Evansville Reitz
9. Northview
10. South Knox
11. Edgewood
12. Castle
13. Tell City
14. Gibson Southern
15. Brown County
16. Jennings County
17. Terre Haute South
18. Evansville North
19. Seymour
20. Springs Valley
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Columbus North has more or less dominated the southern semistate since moving down ten years ago. The Dogs aren’t as the same level, though it is relatively close, as the last couple of years in terms of state contention, but they should win with a pretty comfortable gap this week.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Bloomington North won its regional last week against a solid field. The Cougars have both secure frontrunning and enviable depth.
* Bloomington South is solid as usual. The Panthers aren’t as deep as their crosstown rival but have a frontrunning duo to ensure another state finals berth.
* Floyd Central appears very likely to advance to the state meet again despite reportedly losing its star who hasn’t raced since mid-September.
On the Bubble:
* Austin has benefited from the return of sophomore Carlos Mata in late September. Senior Brandon Rice gives the requisite frontrunning to help compensate for lack of depth.
* Evansville Reitz is between a contender and a longshot to advance. Sophomores Jackson Nolan and Sawyer Mossberger give Reitz a chance. If they both finished in the top ten in the team scoring, it may be enough to offset going deep to close scoring at both fourth and fifth.
* Jasper is probably the safest pick of all the non-locks to advance. Senior Jaryn Weinel gets the squad off to a good start in scoring and the depth is solid enough to withstand a rocky race by anyone outside the top duo.
* New Albany is a very interesting case with potentially two individuals in the top five but will score one of the deepest fifth runners of any team in the field. Behind the four locks and Jasper, this is probably New Albany’s spot to lose, but there is very little margin of error to advance.
* We can’t rule out Edgewood, Northview or South Knox with Castle also harboring hopes to finishing in the top six.
2022 Shelbyville Semi State Preview
Girls Individual Predictions:
1. Lily Cridge - Chatard
2. Sophia Kennedy – Park Tudor
3. Gretchen Farley – Park Tudor
4. Jessica Hegedus - Avon
5. Bridgett Gallagher – Guerin Catholic
6. Julia Score - Chatard
7. Libby Dowty – Indian Creek
8. Jasmine Klopstad - Carmel
9. Nadia Perez - Noblesville
10. Abby Fleetwood – Indian Creek
11. Maddie Rocchio – North Central
12. Summer Rempe - Noblesville
13. Veronica Hargrave - Plainfield
14. Paige Hazelrigg – Noblesville
15. Grace Bragg - Cathedral
16. Ansley Applegate - Noblesville
17. Sydney Klingensmith - Westfield
18. Liz Smith - Westfield
19. Callie Bentley – East Central
20. Brinkley Cooper - Noblesville
How the Girls Individual Race Might Unfold
This is an incredibly strong field, highlighted by Lily Cridge who is far and away the favorite. Kennedy and Farley have been mainstays for years now and should occupy top 5 spots throughout the race. Hegedus and Gallagher have been on a tear lately and should claim be up there as well.
A pair of freshmen to watch will be Libby Dowty and Julia Score. Both have been really strong all season and will almost certainly be in the top 10. They will mix it up with Jasmine Klopstad, who has been incredibly consistent this year to lead the Greyhounds.
Around position 8, we should start to see the Miller train roll into Shelbyville. They will likely put 6 or more runners in the top 25 positions.
Girls Teams Predictions:
1. Noblesville
2. Carmel
3. North Central
4. Zionsville
5. Guerin Catholic
6. East Central
7. Brownsburg
8. Franklin Central
9. Bishop Chatard
10. Avon
11. Southport
12. Indian Creek
13. Franklin Community
14. Plainfield
15. Batesville
16. Center Grove
17. Roncalli
18. Mt. Vernon
19. Centerville
20. New Castle
Girls Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Noblesville - Noblesville is having a historically strong season. With a legitimate shot at a state title next week, this Saturday should be nothing more than a tune-up for the Millers. They will likely have 5 runners in before any of the other contenders score their #3 or even #2 runner.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Carmel – The Greyhounds are in a great position to advance. Although they aren’t as strong at the front end of the scorers as they typically are, their 3-7 depth is the best of any team other than Noblesville
* North Central – North Central turned a corner midway through 2021
On the Bubble:
* Zionsville – After a devastating 2021 season, the Eagles have been consistent thus far this year. They have a strong 1-5 group and should feel good about their chances.
* Guerin Catholic – Guerin will be looking for just their 2nd ever girls state qualifying team. Although they don’t have the depth of some other teams, they have a legit #1 scorer in Bridget Gallagher. They have flashed this season at teams, looking awfully tough when they run as they’re cable of doing.
* East Central – East Central will be looking to play the darling on Saturday, led by 3 underclassmen in their top 5 and the excellent Callie Bentley up front. If they pull it off, it will be the first ever appearance at the State Meet for the Trojans.
* Brownsburg – The Bulldogs are a sneaky team coming out of Hendricks County. The key will be stacking scorers in the 20-35 range.
* Franklin Central – The Flashes looked strong at the Regional, claiming the top 3 spots individually. Depth is a concern, however, as they aren’t strong beyond their 5th runner. They have talent on their roster though and a State birth is not out of the question.
* Bishop Chatard – Up front, Bishop Chatard is stronger than anyone else. In all likelihood, they will have less than 5 points on their card through two runners. They are trending up after a great Regional meet, and if that trend continues, this ranking is probably insultingly low for the Trojans.
* Avon – The Orioles are another team that has flashed at times this season. They have a great #1 runner and a strong #2 as well. How well their 3-5 compete will determine if Avon can make it back to Terre Haute.
Boys Individual Predictions:
1. Kole Mathison - Carmel
2. Anthony Provenzano - Carmel
3. Cameron Todd - Brebeuf
4. Caden Click – Noblesville
5. Charlie Leedke - Carmel
6. Nate Killeen – North Central
7. Ty Garrett – Center Grove
8. Asher Propst - Noblesville
9. Tristan Trevino – Mt. Vernon
10. Matteo Rosio - Brebeuf
11. Brayden Henkle – Franklin Central
12. Matthew Helton - Zionsville
13. Jack Capes - Carmel
14. Thomas Biltimier - Carmel
15. Sam Clore - Avon
16. Emerson Nehring - Plainfield
17. Ezra Burrell - Brebeuf
18. Sam Spees - Zionsville
19. Ryan Handy - Ziosnville
20. Jack Strong - Noblesville
How the Boys Individual Race Might Unfold
No spoiler alert here, Kole Mathison will win this race. Provenzano and Todd have both been incredible this season, but they don’t appear to be a threat for the win.
Up front, there will be a lot of jockeying between teams that think they have a legitimate chance for team qualification. Tristan Trevino has had a great season thus far and could play sleeper. Realistically though, positions 8-20 are pretty wide open, with not a lot separating the resumes of the individuals in play.
Boys Teams Predictions:
1. Carmel
2. Zionsville
3. Noblesville
4. Center Grove
5. Brebeuf
6. Franklin Central
7. Westfield
8. Brownsburg
9. Bishop Chatard
10. Mt. Vernon
11. Greenfield-Central
12. Avon
13. Indian Creek
14. Plainfield
15. Perry Meridian
16. Northeastern
17. Franklin Community
18. Mooresville
19. Milan
20. Richmond
Boys Team Commentary
In the Mix to Win:
* Carmel – Carmel has the star power upfront and the best depth in the field. They are the undisputed favorite and should have no problems here.
In Good Position to Qualify for State:
* Zionsville – The Eagles have been as consistent as anyone this year. Their 1-5 stack is almost interchangeable, and they are strong at the #6 and #7 spots as well. They should feel really good about qualifying and grabbing their first every podium finish next week in Terre Haute
* Noblesville – Noblesville, just like Zionsville, has been consistent all year. They flash a much better 1 and 2 than the Eagles, so minimalizing the damage done at 3-5 will be key.
* Center Grove – Is any team harder to figure out than Center Grove? They have all the pieces to challenge for the #2 spot, but they have not been consistent. The firepower is there and now is the time…
* Brebeuf – Brebeuf has had the pieces all year and appear to be hitting their groove. Expect a big performance from them on Saturday.
On the Bubble:
* Franklin Central – The Flashes have been one of the favorites to grab a qualifying spot since early in the 2022 season. If they take care of business, they have a chance to finish top 10 next week.
* Westfield – It’s been an up-and-down season for the Shamrocks, but they had a good Regional meet. They have lots of talent in their roster and a couple strong performances will go a long way for them.
* Brownsburg – Brownsburg is not often talked about but certainly have a chance to grab a qualifying spot. They have a strong team top-to-bottom.
* Bishop Chatard – A strong Regional meet has Bishop Chatard in the conversation. The big issue for the Trojans will be their top-end scorers. If they can put 1 runner in the top 15 and possibly a second in the top 25, look out!